Platinum demand depends on auto sector

As for China, data from the China Passenger Car Association shows retail auto sales fell by 8.1 percent in November and dropped by 1.1 percent month over month; however, exports rose 52 percent to a record high of 601,000 units.

“New-energy vehicle sales grew only 4.2 percent year over year, undershooting expectations and reinforcing the theme that the domestic EV momentum is cooling faster than previously assumed,” said Hasan.’The export boom, however, keeps Chinese production elevated and sustains global palladium demand through foreign-market supply chains.”

The global slowdown in EV sales is also beneficial to palladium’s demand prospects. Reuters reported that global EV sales rose by just 6 percent in November on flat sales out of China and a 42 percent drop in North America after the Trump Administration ended the EV tax credit scheme. That’s the slowest growth rate since February of 2024.

“Slower electrification limits the speed of substitution away from palladium-heavy combustionengines, extending the life cycle of auto catalyst demand at a time when supply growth remainsan open question,” Hasn stated.

Looking into 2026, S&P Global sees the outlook for light-vehicle production being dependent on changing US trade policies and emissions standards. Consumer demand could be weighed down by the extra costs brought about by tariffs.

“The broader pattern suggests flattish global production trends for 2026, a scenario that keeps palladium demand growth steady but not spectacular,” Hasn explained.

Another factor that may impact palladium demand in the coming year is the premium reversal and the potential for auto makers to swap platinum for palladium in autocatalysts. Historically, for the most part palladium has traded at a premium to platinum; however, this trend reversed in late 2025 as the platinum market is facing a large supply deficit for the year.

In its September 2025 market update, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported at that time that platinum prices over the preceding twelve months were trading at an average premium of US$59 per ounce to palladium prices. The WPIC said it “expects reverse substitution (i.e. palladium for platinum) to reach 250 koz by 2029f. With palladium now benefitting from reverse substitution, palladium will also relatively benefit (versus platinum) from China 7 emission legislation which we have added into our forecasts from 2028f.”

As of December 17, platinum is trading at a premium of more than US$250 compared to palladium.

Palladium supply facing challenges

Palladium’s price peaks in 2025 are not all related to demand. Production and logistics challenges are also driving prices for the metal. The two geographic regions to watch for supply side trends are Russia and South Africa, by far the two biggest palladium producing countries. Together, they account for more than three-quarters of global palladium production. In Russia, palladium is mainly a by-product of nickel and copper mining, whereas in South Africa the metal is mined as a by-product or co-product of platinum.

In South Africa, platinum and palladium mining operations have been plagued by heavy rain and flooding in 2025. The nation’s mining industry has already been suffering under an energy crisis marked by frequent power outages. To further compound the supply problem, maturing deposits are becoming more expensive to mine and a lack of significant capital investment has led to a dearth of new projects.

In Russia, palladium output is traditionally dependent upon the economic and operational viability of its nickel mines. Since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, logistical challenges have erupted all along the palladium supply chain from mining to export as sanctions and trade restrictions have tightened. This includes the removal of Russian refiners from the London Platinum and Palladium Market ‘Good Delivery Lists’.

Another supply side challenge came in mid-2025 when American palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) headed up a petition requesting that the US International Trade Commission (ITC) investigate anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Russian unwrought palladium. Russian palladium represents about 40 percent of US imports of the metal.

The ITC found that dumped and subsidized Russian palladium imports do pose a threat to the US palladium industry. The Department of Commerce is now conducting a full investigation into the dumping margins and subsidies of Russian unwrought palladium. A determination is expected in January 2026, followed by the final phase of the ITC investigation to be completed in May 2026.

Sterck said the outcome could have an impact on the substitution of platinum for palladium in catalytic converters. “I think going into next year, we should get greater clarity on these investigations, and it’s certainly something that we’ll be watching in terms of trying to inform our estimates for 2026 as a whole,” he added.

In its September 20205 market update, the WPIC projected that the palladium market will likely post supply deficits for 2025 and 2026 before moving into a surplus. That’s with palladium mine supply forecast to decline by 1.1 percent CAGR between 2024 and 2029.

“Notably, the forecast of palladium going into surplus is entirely contingent on recycling supply growth. If this does not materialise then palladium could remain in a deficit for the foreseeable future, which could materially alter palladium value expectations,” stated the report.

Palladium price forecast for 2026

The palladium market is notoriously volatile and highly sensitive to economic swings and supply disruptions. All of this makes forecasting palladium prices challenging.

Precious metals industry service provider Heraeus Precious Metals’ 2026 palladium price forecast is representative of the uncertainty prevalent in this segment of the market. The firm is projecting that prices for the metal will trade in a range of US$950 to US$1,500 next year.

Palladium may face a widening surplus as battery electric vehicles gain market share,” said Henrik Marx, Head of Trading at Heraeus Precious Metals. This would likely place downward pressure on palladium price. However, the firm’s report points out that the metal’s price may receive a boost from a rally in platinum prices.

New York-based precious metals dealer Bullion Exchanges has a base case of US$1,300 to US$1,600 per ounce for palladium in 2026. If EV adoption grows faster than expected, its bearish case for the metal comes in at US$1,100 per ounce. If the supply deficit deepens and Russian palladium faces further sanctions, the firm sees a more bullish case for palladium to soar above US$1,800 per ounce.

1. Anaergia (TSX:ANRG)

Year-to-date gain: 187.23 percent
Market cap: C$472.75 million
Share price: C$2.70

Anaergia is a global company that specializes in converting waste, including wastewater and agricultural and municipal solid waste, into renewable energy, clean water and organic fertilizer.

The company has operations in 17 countries spanning North America, Africa, Asia and Europe. In 2025, Anaergia has expanded its global reach through partnerships with companies in Italy and Spain, as well as through a partnership agreement to build a biogas facility in South Korea.

In July 2024, Anaergia closed the third tranche of a C$40.8 million investment deal with Marny Investissement that gave Marny a controlling interest of about 60 percent in Anaergia, supporting the company’s pivot to employ a greater focus on technology sales and operations and maintenance contracts.

The company’s September investor presentation highlights its new strategy of streamlined operations, expanding through global partnerships and selective Build-Own-Operate delivery.

In its Q3 2025 results, the company reported strong financials, with revenue increasing 77 percent year-over-year to C$51.4 million, gross margins expanding to 28.8 percent and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of C$2.6 million.

2. Tantalus Systems (TSX:GRID)

Year-to-date gain: 150.53 percent
Market cap: C$250.03 million
Share price: C$4.76

Tantalus Systems provides technology that gives utilities greater control and insight into their electric grids.

This includes advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), load management systems and grid analytics, all of which contribute to a more efficient and reliable power grid.

One of its key products, TRUConnect AMI, provides real-time data on energy consumption and grid conditions. The TRUFlex Load+DER Management system helps manage energy demand and integrate distributed energy resources like solar power, while TRUGrid Automation optimizes grid operations and improves response to events like power failures.

On July 7, Tantalus announced that it was extending its partnership with EPB in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to deploy 20,000 TRUSense Ethernet Gateways over the next five years, integrating with EPB’s fiber network to enhance grid modernization and operational efficiency.

The company’s annual recurring revenue has grown at an approximate compound annual growth rate of 18 percent since 2016, according to its October presentation.

Its Q3 revenue hit C$14.2 million, up 22.5 percent year-over-year, driven by growth of 30 percent in connected devices and 10 percent in software and services. Its adjusted EBITDA doubled year-over-year to C$1.2 million.

3. Ballard Power Systems (TSX:BLDP)

Year-to-date gain: 50.21 percent
Market cap: C$1.09 billion
Share price: C$3.65

Ballard Power Systems is a hydrogen fuel cell technology company that develops, manufactures and sells proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell products that convert hydrogen into clean electricity with zero emissions. The company targets heavy-duty applications like buses, trucks, trains, marine vessels and stationary power.

Recent deals include a December memorandum of understanding with Kolon Industries for fuel cell components and market expansion and a May multi-year agreement for 50 fuel cell engines with Egypt’s MCV to power its intercity buses.

In Q3 2025, Ballard’s revenue surged 120 percent year-over-year to C$32.5 million led by bus and rail deliveries, with gross margins improving to 15 percent and cash reserves at C$525.7 million. The company also cut total operating expenses by 36 percent.

4. Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX:AQN)

Year-to-date gain: 32.29 percent
Market cap: C$613 billion
Share price: C$8.48

Algonquin Power & Utilities operates regulated electric, water, wastewater and natural gas utilities across the US, Canada, Bermuda and Chile, alongside a retained Hydro Group after divesting its larger renewables business as part of its pure-play regulated utility pivot.

The company completed the sale of its renewable energy assets, excluding hydro, to LS Power in January 2025 for approximately US$2.5 billion. The company declared a Q4 2025 dividend of US$0.065 per common share.

5. Brookfield Renewable Partners (TSX:BEP.UN)

Year-to-date gain: 15.41 percent
Market cap: C$11.41 billion
Share price: C$38.27

Brookfield Renewable Partners owns and operates a global portfolio of hydroelectric, wind, solar and energy storage assets. It also offers sustainable solutions such as nuclear services and carbon capture. The company’s strategy emphasizes long-term power purchase agreements and asset recycling.

Major 2025 deals include a hydropower framework with Brookfield Asset Management (TSX:BAM,NYSE:BAM) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for up to 3 gigawatts of hydroelectricity capacity, starting with US$3 billion in contracts for 670 megawatts capacity in Pennsylvania.

1. North Shore Uranium (TSXV:NSU)

Year-to-date gain: 637.5 percent
Market cap: C$22.17 million
Share price: C$0.295

North Shore Uranium is an exploration company focused on advancing uranium assets in established North American districts. Its core projects include the Falcon and West Bear properties along the eastern margin of Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin in Canada, complemented by a growing presence in the Grants uranium district of New Mexico, US.

The company is also evaluating additional exploration opportunities in the United States and Canada as it builds a diversified uranium project portfolio.

In June, North Shore penned a binding term sheet to acquire an up to 87.5 percent interest in the Rio Puerco uranium project in Northwest New Mexico from Resurrection Mining. The project hosts a historical inferred mineral resource estimate, released in 2009, of approximately 11.4 million pounds of U3O8 from 6 million metric tons of ore grading 0.09 percent U3O8 equivalent.

Subsequently, on August 28, the company officially entered into a definitive option agreement for the acquisition and closed a C$1.4 million private placement. On September 11, the company announced it staked 27 additional mining claims at the Rio Puerco project, bolstering its holdings in the area to 64 adjoining Bureau of Land Management claims.

As for its projects in Canada, in an October press release North Shore announced the completion of a prospecting program at its Falcon property, during which crews evaluated 18 priority targets for surface expression and anomalous radioactivity, collecting samples to support further exploration.

Later in the month, North Shore fulfilled its final earn-in requirement at the West Bear property, issuing C$50,000 shares to Gem Oil to secure the right to acquire a 75 percent interest in the project.

Shares of North Shore Uranium rose to a year-to-date high of C$0.29 on December 15, a few days after the company launched a C$3 million private placement on December 11.

Looking ahead, the company is planning a drill program at the Rio Puerco uranium project during H1 2026.

2. Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR)

Year-to-date gain: 156.12 percent
Market cap: C$4.76 billion
Share price: C$19.26

US-based uranium producer Energy Fuels has a large portfolio of conventional and in-situ recovery (ISR) projects across the Western US, including Pinyon Plain in Arizona, a top national producer.

Additionally, Energy Fuels owns and operates the White Mesa mill, the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium mill in the US. The company is progressing heavy rare earth oxide processing at the plant as well.

Company shares reached a year-to-date high of C$36.84 on October 14, 11 days after Energy Fuels closed its US$700 million offering of 0.75 percent convertible senior notes due 2031, which was upsized after initial purchasers exercised their option to purchase a further US$100 million in notes.

In a Q3 report released on November 3, the company underscored a rise in uranium sales, as its low-cost US production continued to outperform, putting the miner on track to exceed its 2025 guidance.

The firm also advanced its rare earth ambitions, producing 29 kilograms of dysprosium oxide in pilot runs through September, with terbium oxide next in line.

The October US$700 million convertible note offering strengthened the balance sheet, lifting working capital to nearly US$1 billion and raising the effective conversion price to US$30.70 per share.

3. Stallion Uranium (TSXV:STUD)

Year-to-date gain: 150 percent
Market cap: C$49.57 million
Share price: C$0.375

Uranium junior Stallion Uranium holds a 2,870 square kilometer land package on the western side of the Athabasca Basin, in Saskatchewan, Canada, including a joint venture with Atha Energy (TSXV:SASK,OTCQB:SASKF) for the largest contiguous project in the region. The company’s primary focus is the Coyote target at the Moonlite project.

Stallion’s share price shot upward on July 8 after the company announced a technology data acquisition agreement for Matchstick TI, an intelligent geological target identification platform with 77 percent accuracy. Stallion plans to use the technology to enhance its exploration efforts. It closed the acquisition on November 12.

In early September, Stallion Uranium closed the final tranche of a non-brokered private placement, raising gross proceeds of C$10.49 million. The financing included 22.3 million non-flow-through units and 30.1 million flow-through units, both priced at $0.20 per unit.

Stallion’s shares registered a year-to-date high of C$0.51 on September 16.

According to an October statement, Stallion planned to start a high-resolution ground time domain electromagnetic survey on Coyote on November 1, but it has not yet released a further update on the survey.

The company announced a further private placement on December 12, this one consisting of flow-through shares for gross proceeds of C$4.55 million at a price of C$0.45 per share.

4. District Metals (TSXV:DMX)

Year-to-date gains: 139.51 percent
Market cap: C$165.24 million
Share price: C$0.97

District Metals is an energy metals and polymetallic explorer and developer with a portfolio of seven assets in Sweden, including four uranium projects: Viken, Ardnasvarre, Sågtjärn and Nianfors. Currently, District is focused on its Viken uranium-vanadium project, which it says hosts the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit.

Shares began trending upwards in mid-May following news of a fully subscribed C$6 million private placement.

District spent 2025 advancing its four uranium projects through a series of targeted surveys. A helicopter-borne mobile magnetotellurics (MobileMT) program wrapped up at the flagship Viken property in June, followed by drone-based radiometric and magnetic surveys at Ardnasvarre, Sågtjärn and Nianfors in July.

Early September results at Sågtjärn and Nianfors were strong enough for the company to seek expanded licenses. Later that month, new MobileMT data from Viken revealed large low-resistivity anomalies both within and beyond the known deposit footprint, pointing to potential for additional uranium deposits.

Shares of District rallied to a year-to-date high of C$1.53 on October 15, the day the company released the results of its radiometric and magnetic survey at the Ardnasvarre property, which identified strong and large anomalies associated with uranium polymetallic occurrences.

District also reported fresh momentum at its alum shale properties after completing airborne MobileMT surveys across the Österkälen, Tåsjö and Malgomaj licenses this summer.

The first batch of results, released in late October, outlined a significant new geophysical anomaly at its wholly owned Österkälen license. District has already applied for an adjacent mineral license to capture the anomaly’s northwestern extension. The Österkälen area lies roughly 100 kilometers northeast of the company’s flagship Viken property.

In subsequent announcements, District reported the discovery of high priority targets at the Tåsjö alum shale property, and of large, robust targets at the Malgomaj alum shale property, both of which led the company to file applications for adjacent mineral licenses.

In early November, District Metals welcomed a landmark decision in Sweden when Parliament voted to repeal the country’s 2018 moratorium on uranium exploration and mining.

The new legislation, set to take effect January 1, 2026, opens the door for renewed development in a nation that holds roughly 27 percent of Europe’s known uranium resources.

5. Purepoint Uranium (TSXV:PTU)

Year-to-date gain: 113.64 percent
Market cap: C$38.01 million
Share price: C$0.47

Exploration company Purepoint Uranium has an extensive uranium portfolio including six joint ventures and five wholly owned projects, all located in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin.

In January, Purepoint strengthened its relationship with IsoEnergy (TSX:ISO,NYSEAMERICAN:ISOU) when the latter exercised its put option under the framework of a previously announced joint-venture agreement, transferring 10 percent of its stake to Purepoint in exchange for 4 million shares. The now 50/50 joint venture will explore 10 uranium projects across 98,000 hectares in the Athabasca Basin, including the Dorado project.

As for Q3, the company closed the final tranche of a C$6 million private placement on September 5.

Later in the month, Purepoint released partial assay results from the Dorado project for one hole from its 11 hole drill program. The drill hole returned the most significant intervals to date, according to the company, with one interval of 2.1 meters grading 1.6 percent U3O8, including 0.4 meters at 8.1 percent, as well as another interval of 4.9 meters at 0.52 percent. The company has since dubbed this the Nova discovery

Purepoint ended September by launching its inaugural drill program at the Tabbernor project, located on the southeastern edge of the basin. The program, which concluded in November, targeted a 60 kilometer long corridor of graphitic conductors with five first-pass diamond drill holes. The Tabbernor findings will be combined with the company’s ongoing regional interpretation work to prioritize next targets.

Shares of Purepoint registered a year-to-date high of C$0.80 on October 14 as uranium prices rose.

In early December, Purepoint and IsoEnergy approved an expanded 2026 exploration program at the Dorado project following the previously released strong drill results, which Purepoint said confirm ‘a steeply dipping, uranium-bearing structure that remains open in all directions.’

The joint venture will prioritize the northeastern extension of the Nova discovery while advancing other high-potential zones across Dorado.

FAQs for investing in uranium

Oil market battles persistent headwinds

2025 saw oil prices fluctuate between highs of US$81.86 (Brent) and US$78.99 (WTI) and lows of US$59.41 and US$55.56, respectively, as the energy market served as a barometer of global political and trade tensions.

“Throughout the year, prices have continued the downtrend they began in April (2024) as OPEC+ continued to hike output and China’s economy continued to struggle under the weight of a flailing property sector, downbeat consumer confidence, overindebted local governments and flagging external demand,” he added.

While the oil market isn’t new to volatility, this year proved different as US President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs infused global uncertainty into the energy market.

“We can see that Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs pushed prices down to a level from which they’ve not recovered from, barring a spike in June as a result of the 12 day Iran-Israel war,” said Cunningham.

“Since then, Brent crude oil prices have continued to fall as OPEC+ caught the market off guard with its aggressive output hikes, which were designed to win back market share from non-cartel producers.’

Demand growth, underinvestment reshape oil outlook

Meanwhile, OPEC is approaching full production capacity, with Saudi Arabia being the main exception.

“Even though people are talking about lots of supply, demand is still growing,” Schachter said, noting that global oil demand rose roughly 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to increase by about 1.2 million in 2026.

New supply additions are limited, he explained, mentioning Guyana’s offshore discoveries by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), some output from Brazil and minor contributions from Canada.

“Most basins are tired, and not enough money is being spent to bring on production,” Schachter said, predicting that global inventory drawdowns in 2026 will support higher prices.

Despite lack of investment at the exploration level, FocusEconomics panelists are forecasting a rise in both oil and gas supply in 2026 fueled by output growth at existing operations.

Cunningham pointed to organizations like the EIA and International Energy Agency (IEA), which “hiked their forecasts in recent months in response to OPEC+ increasing output unexpectedly fast and the recent surge in demand for US LNG.”

“The real question is not if oil and gas production will increase, but by how much,” said Cunningham.

A ramp up could be curtailed by geopolitical disruptions, he went on to note.

“Recent frictions between members of the OPEC+ cartel will persist, with Russia likely to favor lower production levels given US sanctions and countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates eager to push production higher given their excess capacity and desire to win back market share from non-OPEC+ producers,” he said.

“Moreover, countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq continue to overshoot their quotas, and in late 2023 Angola left the cartel due to disputes over its allowed production level.”

Transport and petrochemicals driving oil demand

Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2026, driven primarily by transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.

Gasoline is projected to lead the increase, supported by recovering air travel and road mobility, while diesel and other products also contribute. Non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, will account for most of the growth, with expanding petrochemical capacity in major economies boosting crude-derived feedstock demand.

Overall, transport and industrial activity remain the key engines behind the expected rise in oil consumption.

“Our panelists see world oil production rising 1.1 percent in 2026 as non-OPEC+ countries such as Guyana and the US hike output,” said FocusEconomics’ Cunningham.

LNG expansion fuels gas growth

Similar to the trajectory for oil, natural gas demand is expected to rise in 2026 as global consumption rebounds and LNG exports expand sharply. “The IEA (is) estimating growth at around 2 percent with consumption at an all-time high on higher demand in the industrial and electricity sectors,” said Cunningham.

Rising LNG supply — with new export capacity coming online in the US, Canada and Qatar — is projected to support stronger import growth, particularly in Asia, where demand is expected to rebound after a 2025 slowdown.

“Asia is hungry for LNG; the IEA estimates the region’s natural gas demand will rise over 4 percent in 2026, with LNG imports up by 10 percent,” the expert said. Increased use of natural gas in power generation and industrial sectors will also contribute to growth, helping push global gas demand toward a new peak next year.

“Of course, these forecasts could change quickly if the world economy or the oil and gas sector is subject to further shocks, which is why we recommend regularly checking the latest forecasts that are available,” Cunningham added.

Further ahead, Schachter argued that rising global power needs will underpin long-term demand for natural gas, particularly as alternatives struggle to scale. Aging power grids are another constraint. Much of the world’s electricity infrastructure has not been meaningfully upgraded, and expanding capacity will require major investment in transmission — driving demand for copper, steel and aluminum alongside new generation.

Against that backdrop, Schachter sees LNG as central to meeting near- and medium-term power needs.

“The demand for LNG is the story,” he said, adding that natural gas is increasingly viewed not as a temporary transition fuel, but as “the most efficient, from a climate and environmental point of view.”

He also highlighted Canada’s advantage as producers invest heavily in emissions-reduction technologies, including methane mitigation. That positioning could make Canadian LNG more attractive to import-dependent nations such as Japan and South Korea.

While new supply from Qatar and the US will add capacity, Schachter cautioned that LNG development is rarely linear, pointing to Canada’s decades-long path to its first operating export terminal. Despite inevitable delays and short-term imbalances, he said the long-term outlook remains clear: “The industry’s fundamentals are very, very positive.”

Cunningham also pointed to increased output from the US and Qatar as key areas to watch in 2026.

“The big Qatari and US LNG projects will help natural gas prices converge globally — our Consensus Forecast is for the percentage difference between US gas prices (which tend to be lower due to huge domestic production) and those in Asia and Europe to ease to the lowest level since 2020, the year the pandemic sent gas demand plummeting,” said Cunningham, adding, “In short, record US LNG shipments will send up prices at home and lower them abroad.”

Cunningham went on to explain that unlike oil, in the natural gas market there tends to be more price divergence between regions as natural gas is harder to transport over large distances. Oil can be poured into a barrel and shipped, whereas natural gas first needs to be liquified if it’s to be sent overseas. Greater LNG capacity will help bridge this gap.

Oil and gas price forecast for 2026

Schachter expects WTI to average over US$70 in 2026, with Brent around US$73 to US$74.

He anticipates some volatility early in the new year, saying that in Q1 he expects trading to be “still sloppy between US$56 and US$66,” before prices rise in Q2 to US$62 to US$72. From there, he sees prices reaching US$68 to US$78 in the year’s third quarter as inventories tighten and market fundamentals assert themselves.

“People think we’re going back to US$80 today. US$58 oil — it ain’t going to US$80. But when the industry is in rational supply and demand, prices climb, especially when inventories draw down quickly,” Schachter said, recalling the 2008 peak in oil prices near US$147 during extreme supply shortages.

Looking at the year ahead, FocusEconomics expects the trends of 2025 to continue.

“Average Brent crude oil prices will ease further to a post-pandemic low, while US natural gas prices will increase to the highest average level since 2014 barring 2022’s Russia-Ukraine-war-driven spike,” said Cunningham.

“OPEC+ is set to continue raising output — after a pause in Q1 2026 — and the global economy should slow as the boost from export front-loading ahead of US tariff wanes.”

The clean AI investment surge

Meanwhile, startups are racing to make infrastructure smarter and faster to build with the help of AI.

Emerald AI, which uses smart software to manage a cleaner, more flexible grid and ease data center strain, announced its first commercial deployment alongside US$18 million in new seed funding, while Infravision, a company that uses drones to string transmission lines more efficiently, raised US$91 million in a Series B round to scale globally.

AI is also accelerating cleantech breakthroughs, as highlighted by the CleanAI Initiative’s report on AI’s growing role in climate solutions. It shows energy and power technologies garnered more than half of total clean AI investments.

The sector is seen as a critical, multi-layered investment opportunity tied to sustainability and technology leadership in multitrillion-dollar markets; however, key challenges to its growth include the high energy consumption of AI technologies themselves and a lack of combined expertise in both AI and climate science.

Billions in private investment have helped sustain the cleantech sector.

Experts Jason Bordoff and Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh argue that corporate funding will help boost energy transition, citing power purchase agreements and other financial commitments by Big Tech companies such as Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

NextEra Energy’s (NYSE:NEE) landmark Q4 deals with Alphabet and Meta to power their AI data centers are prime examples of this trend. The Florida-based company will supply clean energy capacity through 11 power purchase and two energy storage deals, with projects expected to become operational between 2026 and 2028. NextEra is also collaborating with Google Cloud to develop three US data center campuses.

However, this transformative period carries significant risks: if the AI boom proves to be a bubble that bursts, energy investment could swiftly vanish, leading to billions in stranded assets.

As China solidifies its dominance in clean energy manufacturing, the question remains whether the US administration’s efforts to expand nuclear and geothermal power can successfully challenge China’s current leadership, as Beijing also accelerates its own nuclear buildout and eyes global reactor exports.

Nuclear and geothermal gaining traction

Nuclear and geothermal are gaining traction as promising solutions for AI and data center reliability in 2026, attracting enterprise and policy support as other clean energy initiatives and incentives are pulled back.

The Department of Energy formally released its Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap in Q4, outlining a strategy to accelerate commercial fusion by the mid-2030s. Separately, the department announced it will award up to US$800 million in cost-shared funding to advance small modular reactor projects.

Startups are accelerating too, with Antares raising US$96 million for mid-2026 microreactor tests, while Radiant Nuclear is planning a US$280 million factory in Tennessee targeting 2028 deliveries. Under the leadership of CEO Bob Mumgaard, Commonwealth Fusion Systems is transitioning fusion energy from the realm of research to practical power generation. The company is currently building sites for its commercial fusion plants and is utilizing a partnership with Google DeepMind, focused on AI, to speed up the development of its fusion technology.

Geothermal is scaling, too, with some investors turning their attention to even more ambitious high-temperature projects. Mazama Energy, a startup backed by billionaire businessman Vinod Khosla, is developing a geothermal project at Newberry, one of the largest and most active volcanoes. If successful, this could be a top global geothermal site, supplying electricity to local homes and businesses starting next year.

Endeavors like these are viewed by enthusiasts as a potential catalyst for a new era of geothermal power.

“Geothermal has been mostly inconsequential,” Khosla told the Washington Post.

“To do consequential geothermal that matters at the scale of tens or hundreds of gigawatts for the country, and many times that globally, you really need to solve these high temperatures.”

Another notable example is Zanskar Geothermal and Minerals, which precisely located a deep geothermal reservoir using AI, effectively lowering the exploration and drilling costs of its Big Blind geothermal system. The company is seeking permits to develop Big Blind, aiming to supply power by the end of the decade.

EV localization and self-driving options

Looking ahead, robotaxis are gaining traction in the EV market, with growing fleets operating in multiple cities.

Alphabet’s Waymo is the most aggressive company in this space, currently offering driverless rides in five cities with plans to expand in 2026. Other key players are actively engaged in various testing stages.

Both Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) are incorporating Waymo and other robotaxi services into their platforms, and Uber is adding robotaxis to its platform in Dallas, Texas, through a partnership with Avride, using autonomous Hyundai (KRX:005380,OTC Pink:HYMTF) Ioniq 5s that will initially include a safety operator.

Amazon’s self-driving robotaxi subsidiary, Zoox, expects to start charging passengers for rides in Las Vegas in early 2026, with paid rides in the San Francisco Bay Area coming later next year; however, the move depends on obtaining federal regulatory and state approvals. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), led by CEO Elon Musk, is operating smaller, monitored robotaxi fleets in Austin and San Francisco, with Phoenix anticipated to be the next market for a major expansion.

Meanwhile, self-driving truck startup Waabi, a Canadian company with backing from Uber and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), launched its new autonomous truck developed with Volvo (STO:VOLV-A,OTC Pink:VLVCY).

Investor takeaway

As the cleantech market navigates this transformative period, its long-term success will hinge on strategic investments that successfully balance immense AI energy demands with the imperative of avoiding a stranded-asset bubble.

Sector participants will also need to track country-level developments. In the US, Senator Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) energy plan prioritizes affordability over climate primacy, calling for reinstated clean tax credits, small modular reactor R&D funding, transmission exemptions and zero-carbon sources alongside oil/gas with clean timelines.

Meanwhile, Canada’s 2025 budget includes a C$2 billion cleantech fund, and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism pressures imports, favoring compliant North American projects that blend reliability with decarbonization.