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Chipotle to expand to Mexico amid Trump trade war with U.S. neighbor

Business 2 Mins Read

Chipotle Mexican Grill will open its first location in Mexico early next year as the latest stage in its international expansion.

The company announced Monday that it has signed a development agreement with Alsea, which operates Latin American and European locations of Starbucks, Domino’s Pizza and Burger King, among other chains.

After the initial restaurant opens in 2026, Chipotle plans to explore “additional expansion markets in the region,” which could mean broader Latin American development.

The deal to expand in Mexico comes as President Donald Trump wages a trade war with the country, straining the relationship between the two neighbors. Avocados from Mexico were originally subject to a 25% tariff until he paused new duties on goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. While Chipotle has diversified its avocado sourcing in recent years, it still imports about half of its avocados from Mexico.

In recent years, Chipotle has been trying to expand internationally, after decades focusing almost entirely on its U.S. business. The company operates 58 locations in Canada, 20 in the United Kingdom, six in France and two in Germany. Chipotle also currently has three restaurants in Kuwait and two in the United Arab Emirates through a deal with Alshaya Group.

Chipotle is betting that Mexico’s familiarity with its ingredients and appreciation for fresh food will win over consumers, according to a statement from Nate Lawton, Chipotle’s chief business development officer.

But U.S. interpretations of Mexican food don’t always resonate in the market; Yum Brands’ Taco Bell has twice attempted to expand into Mexico, but both efforts failed quickly.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Equities Are Not the Place to be as Alternative Assets Lead

Stock 3 Mins Read

Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market with the vast majority of names (76%) trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

TrendInvestorPro works with a ChartList that has 72 ETFs covering all sectors, the key industry groups, commodities, bonds and crypto. Note that this curated ChartList is available to TrendInvestorPro subscribers. The image below is sorted by the percentage above the 200-day SMA (blue shading) to show the top 20 performers. This simple performance overview reveals a lot. We are NOT in a bull market and alternative assets are attracting attention (gold, Bitcoin).

First, we see leadership from gold, silver, Bitcoin, and commodity-related ETFs. Second, only a handful of equity ETFs are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Third, these ETFs represent defensive groups (Consumer Staples Utilities, MLPs, Aerospace & Defense, Insurance). This is NOT the performance profile for a bull market. We are in a bear market and equities are not the place to be right now.

Improve your odds and stay on the right side of the market with the models and analysis at TrendInvestorPro. Our stock market model turned bearish in mid March, and remains bearish. Even with the big surge on April 9th, our thrust indicators fell well short of a signal because of weak follow through. We will continue to watch these models and focus on equity alternatives. Click here to get a bonus and learn more!  

The Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is in the leadership group and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is bouncing off its 270 day SMA. Where did 270 come from? A typical 200-day SMA covers a little less than 9 months of trading days, which exclude weekends and holidays. Bitcoin trades 24/7, weekends and holidays. Chartists, therefore, need an adjustment to get the ~9-month equivalent for Bitcoin. I chose 270.

The chart below shows Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) with a classic correction and setup in the making. Bitcoin gained over 100% from September to January and was entitled to a correction. Dow Theory teaches us that normal corrections retrace 33 to 67 percent of the prior advance. 50 percent is the base case. The chart shows the Fibonacci retracements with Bitcoin retracing 61.8% as it fell to 75000. Bitcoin also tested the rising 270-day SMA in March and April. A 61.8% retracement and return to the ~9-month SMA are normal for corrections (blue shading).

A falling wedge formed with Bitcoin establishing resistance at 88000 (pink line). Falling wedge patterns are also typical for corrections. More importantly, these patterns provide levels to watch for a trend reversal. Bitcoin is making its first breakout attempt with a move above the upper trendline. Further strength above 88000 would forge a higher high and argue for a new uptrend. I would then set a re-evaluation level at the 270-day SMA. A close below this moving average would suggest a failed breakout.  

TrendInvestorPro keeps you on the right side.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////

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Investing

Finlay Minerals Enters into Earn-In Agreements with Freeport for its PIL & ATTY Properties

Investing 7 Mins Read

Finlay Minerals Ltd.( TSXV: FYL) (OTCQB: FYMNF) (‘Finlay’ or the ‘Company’) announces that the Company has entered into two definitive earn-in agreements (the ‘Earn-In Agreements’) with Freeport-McMoRan Mineral Properties Canada Inc. (‘Freeport’), a wholly owned subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX), pursuant to which it has granted Freeport separate options to earn an 80% interest in its PIL and ATTY Properties (the ‘Properties’) in the Toodoggone District of northern British Columbia.

Highlights

  • Freeport may earn 80% of the PIL and ATTY Projects by expending $35 million in Exploration Expenditures and making Cash Payments of $4.1 million – (Refer to Table 1 below for further details);
  • Finlay will act as the Operator during the Earn-In period; and
  • Exploration Program planning is underway and will be announced shortly.

The earn-in in respect of each of the Properties may be exercised separately. Following the completion of the earn-in on either of the Properties, Freeport and Finlay will respectively hold interests of 80% and 20% in such Property, and a joint venture will be formed for further exploration and development. In the event that a party does not fund their portion of further joint venture programs, their interests in the joint venture will dilute. Any party that dilutes to below a 10% interest in the joint venture will exchange its joint venture interest for a net smelter returns (‘NSR‘) royalty of 1% on the applicable Property, which is subject to a 0.5% buyback for USD $2,000,000.

The earn-in requirements can be accelerated by Freeport at its discretion. During the earn-in period, Finlay will be the Operator on the Properties, collecting an operator’s fee, under the direction of a technical committee that will approve work programs and budgets during the earn-in period.

The PIL & ATTY Properties are each subject to a 3.0% NSR royalty held by Electrum Resource Corporation (‘Electrum’), a private company, the outstanding voting shares of which are held by Company directors: John A. Barakso and Ilona B. Lindsay. The Company has a current right to buy back ½ of the royalty (1.5%) on each property for an aggregate payment of $2,000,000 and $1,500,000 respectively. Finlay and Electrum have agreed that upon the exercise of the earn-in in respect of each Property by Freeport, the buy-back right will be amended to provide for a 2.0% buyback for each Property, in consideration for an increased buy-back payment to be sole-funded by Freeport without joint venture dilution to Finlay, and will be divided equally between Finlay and Electrum.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is a leading international metals company focused on copper, with major operations in the Americas and Indonesia and significant reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum.

The Earn-In Agreements were executed and delivered on April 17, 2025 and are subject to approval of the TSX Venture Exchange. Finlay and Freeport are arms-length parties and no finders’ fees were incurred with these transactions.

About the PIL Property:

The 100% owned PIL Property covers 13,374 hectares of highly prospective ground in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The core PIL claims were staked over 30 years ago by the founders of the Company. Over the decades, numerous Cu-Au-Mo porphyry and porphyry-related Au-Ag epithermal targets have been identified at PIL. The identified targets are central to a broader 70 km porphyry corridor trend, which includes: Centerra Gold’s past producing Kemess South Cu-Au porphyry mine and Kemess Underground Cu-Au-Ag porphyry resource, Thesis Gold’s Lawyers-Ranch Au-Ag epithermal resource, and the newly discovered Amarc Resources and Freeport AuRORA Cu-Au-Ag porphyry. Readers are cautioned that mineralization on the foregoing regional properties is not necessarily indicative of mineralization on the PIL Property. The PIL Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season. (Refer to Figure 2 Map.)

About the ATTY Property:

The 100% owned ATTY Property covers 3,875 hectares in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The ATTY Property adjoins Centerra Gold’s Kemess Project and Amarc Resources and Freeport’s JOY property. Several epithermal-style Ag ± Au ± Cu ± base-metal veins are exposed on the ATTY Property, and geochemical and geophysical work have outlined at least two promising porphyry targets, including the drill-ready KEM Target. The ATTY Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season.

Qualified Person:

Wade Barnes, P. Geo. and Vice President, Exploration for Finlay and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical content of this news release.

About Finlay Minerals Ltd.

Finlay is a TSXV company focused on exploration for base and precious metal deposits with four 100% owned properties in northern British Columbia: the PIL and ATTY properties in the Toodoggone, the Silver Hope Cu-Ag Property (21,322 ha) and the SAY Cu-Ag Property (15,246 ha).

Finlay Minerals is advancing the PIL, ATTY, SAY and Silver Hope Properties that host copper-gold porphyry and gold-silver epithermal targets within different porphyry districts of northern and central BC. Each property is located in areas of recent development and porphyry discoveries with the advantage of hosting the potential for new discoveries.

Finlay trades under the symbol ‘FYL’ on the TSXV and under the symbol ‘FYMNF’ on the OTCQB. For further information and details, please visit the Company’s website at www.finlayminerals.com

On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Robert F. Brown
President, CEO & Director

Neither the TSXV nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Information: This news release includes certain ‘forward-looking information’ and ‘forward-looking statements’ (collectively, ‘forward-looking statements’) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements in this news release that address events or developments that we expect to occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, although not always, identified by words such as ‘expect’, ‘plan’, ‘anticipate’, ‘project’, ‘target’, ‘potential’, ‘schedule’, ‘forecast’, ‘budget’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’ or ‘believe’ and similar expressions or their negative connotations, or that events or conditions ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘should’ or ‘might’ occur. All such forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made. Forward-looking statements in this news release include statements regarding, among others, the exploration plans for the Properties and the potential exercise of Freeport’s option to acquire an interest in the Properties. Although Finlay believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploration successes, and continued availability of capital and financing and general economic, market or business conditions. These forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions including, among other things, assumptions regarding general business and economic conditions, the timing and receipt of regulatory and governmental approvals, the ability of Finlay and other parties to satisfy stock exchange and other regulatory requirements in a timely manner, the availability of financing for Finlay’s proposed transactions and programs on reasonable terms, and the ability of third-party service providers to deliver services in a timely manner. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, and accordingly undue reliance should not be put on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Finlay does not assume any obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

Source

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Nintendo Switch 2 retail preorder to begin April 24 following tariff delays

Business 2 Mins Read

Nintendo on Friday announced that retail preorder for its Nintendo Switch 2 gaming system will begin on April 24 starting at $449.99.

Preorders for the hotly anticipated console were initially slated for April 9, but Nintendo delayed the date to assess the impact of the far-reaching, aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.

Most electronics companies, including Nintendo, manufacture their products in Asia. Nintendo’s Switch 1 consoles were made in China and Vietnam, Reuters reported in 2019. Trump has imposed a 145% tariff rate on China and a 10% rate on Vietnam. The latter is down from 46%, after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations.

Nintendo said Friday that the Switch 2 will cost $449.99 in the U.S., which is the same price the company first announced on April 2.

“We apologize for the retail pre-order delay, and hope this reduces some of the uncertainty our consumers may be experiencing,” Nintendo said in a statement. “We thank our customers for their patience, and we share their excitement to experience Nintendo Switch 2 starting June 5, 2025.”

The Nintendo Switch 2 and “Mario Kart World″ bundle will cost $499.99, the digital version “Mario Kart World” will cost $79.99 and the digital version of “Donkey Kong Bananza” will cost $69.99, Nintendo said. All of those prices remain unchanged from the company’s initial announcement.

However, accessories for the Nintendo Switch 2 will “experience price adjustments,” the company said, and other future changes in costs are possible for “any Nintendo product.”

It will cost gamers $10 more to by the dock set, $1 more to buy the controller strap and $5 more to buy most other accessories, for instance.

Retailer Best Buy said Friday that it will also begin accepting preorders for the Nintendo Switch 2 console, games and accessories on April 24.

The company said that for the first time in six years, most of its stores will open at midnight for the official launch day, June 5, so that customers can “get their hands on their new Switch 2 immediately.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Netflix maintained its 2025 guidance. That may not be the sign of confidence it seems.

Business 2 Mins Read

Netflix executives messaged Thursday that all is well with the business in the face of economic turbulence. But its full-year outlook tells a slightly more nuanced story.

Netflix posted a big beat on operating margin for the first quarter, reporting 31.7% compared with the average estimate of 28.5%, according to StreetAccount. And it guided well above analyst estimates for the second quarter — 33.3% against an average estimate of 30%.

By its own phrasing, Netflix was “ahead” of its own guidance for the first quarter and is “tracking above the mid-point of our 2025 revenue guidance range.”

Still, Netflix declined to alter any of its longer-term projections. That suggests Netflix isn’t quite as confident in its second half.

“There’s been no material change to our overall business outlook since our last earnings report,” Netflix wrote in its quarterly note to shareholders.

U.S. consumer sentiment is at its second-lowest level since 1952 as President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies roil markets.

Co-CEO Greg Peters noted during the company’s earnings conference call that Netflix has, in the past, “been generally quite resilient” to economic slowdowns. Home entertainment provides a cheaper form of leisure than most other activities. A monthly Netflix subscription with ads costs $7.99.

But the question remains how — or whether — an economic slowdown would pinch Americans’ wallets and force higher churn among streaming subscriptions.

Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers this quarter, so the company will likely not detail if it sees a customer slowdown later this year beyond reporting its underlying revenue and profit.

First-quarter revenue of $10.5 billion was roughly in line with analyst expectations, while second-quarter guidance of $11 billion is slightly above.

“Retention, that’s stable and strong. We haven’t seen anything significant in plan mix or plan take rate,” said Peters. “Things generally look stable.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Investing

Finlay Minerals Enters into Earn-In Agreements with Freeport for its PIL & ATTY Properties

Investing 7 Mins Read

Finlay Minerals Ltd.( TSXV: FYL) (OTCQB: FYMNF) (‘Finlay’ or the ‘Company’) announces that the Company has entered into two definitive earn-in agreements (the ‘Earn-In Agreements’) with Freeport-McMoRan Mineral Properties Canada Inc. (‘Freeport’), a wholly owned subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX), pursuant to which it has granted Freeport separate options to earn an 80% interest in its PIL and ATTY Properties (the ‘Properties’) in the Toodoggone District of northern British Columbia.

Highlights

  • Freeport may earn 80% of the PIL and ATTY Projects by expending $35 million in Exploration Expenditures and making Cash Payments of $4.1 million – (Refer to Table 1 below for further details);
  • Finlay will act as the Operator during the Earn-In period; and
  • Exploration Program planning is underway and will be announced shortly.

The earn-in in respect of each of the Properties may be exercised separately. Following the completion of the earn-in on either of the Properties, Freeport and Finlay will respectively hold interests of 80% and 20% in such Property, and a joint venture will be formed for further exploration and development. In the event that a party does not fund their portion of further joint venture programs, their interests in the joint venture will dilute. Any party that dilutes to below a 10% interest in the joint venture will exchange its joint venture interest for a net smelter returns (‘NSR‘) royalty of 1% on the applicable Property, which is subject to a 0.5% buyback for USD $2,000,000.

The earn-in requirements can be accelerated by Freeport at its discretion. During the earn-in period, Finlay will be the Operator on the Properties, collecting an operator’s fee, under the direction of a technical committee that will approve work programs and budgets during the earn-in period.

The PIL & ATTY Properties are each subject to a 3.0% NSR royalty held by Electrum Resource Corporation (‘Electrum’), a private company, the outstanding voting shares of which are held by Company directors: John A. Barakso and Ilona B. Lindsay. The Company has a current right to buy back ½ of the royalty (1.5%) on each property for an aggregate payment of $2,000,000 and $1,500,000 respectively. Finlay and Electrum have agreed that upon the exercise of the earn-in in respect of each Property by Freeport, the buy-back right will be amended to provide for a 2.0% buyback for each Property, in consideration for an increased buy-back payment to be sole-funded by Freeport without joint venture dilution to Finlay, and will be divided equally between Finlay and Electrum.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is a leading international metals company focused on copper, with major operations in the Americas and Indonesia and significant reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum.

The Earn-In Agreements were executed and delivered on April 17, 2025 and are subject to approval of the TSX Venture Exchange. Finlay and Freeport are arms-length parties and no finders’ fees were incurred with these transactions.

About the PIL Property:

The 100% owned PIL Property covers 13,374 hectares of highly prospective ground in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The core PIL claims were staked over 30 years ago by the founders of the Company. Over the decades, numerous Cu-Au-Mo porphyry and porphyry-related Au-Ag epithermal targets have been identified at PIL. The identified targets are central to a broader 70 km porphyry corridor trend, which includes: Centerra Gold’s past producing Kemess South Cu-Au porphyry mine and Kemess Underground Cu-Au-Ag porphyry resource, Thesis Gold’s Lawyers-Ranch Au-Ag epithermal resource, and the newly discovered Amarc Resources and Freeport AuRORA Cu-Au-Ag porphyry. Readers are cautioned that mineralization on the foregoing regional properties is not necessarily indicative of mineralization on the PIL Property. The PIL Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season. (Refer to Figure 2 Map.)

About the ATTY Property:

The 100% owned ATTY Property covers 3,875 hectares in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The ATTY Property adjoins Centerra Gold’s Kemess Project and Amarc Resources and Freeport’s JOY property. Several epithermal-style Ag ± Au ± Cu ± base-metal veins are exposed on the ATTY Property, and geochemical and geophysical work have outlined at least two promising porphyry targets, including the drill-ready KEM Target. The ATTY Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season.

Qualified Person:

Wade Barnes, P. Geo. and Vice President, Exploration for Finlay and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical content of this news release.

About Finlay Minerals Ltd.

Finlay is a TSXV company focused on exploration for base and precious metal deposits with four 100% owned properties in northern British Columbia: the PIL and ATTY properties in the Toodoggone, the Silver Hope Cu-Ag Property (21,322 ha) and the SAY Cu-Ag Property (15,246 ha).

Finlay Minerals is advancing the PIL, ATTY, SAY and Silver Hope Properties that host copper-gold porphyry and gold-silver epithermal targets within different porphyry districts of northern and central BC. Each property is located in areas of recent development and porphyry discoveries with the advantage of hosting the potential for new discoveries.

Finlay trades under the symbol ‘FYL’ on the TSXV and under the symbol ‘FYMNF’ on the OTCQB. For further information and details, please visit the Company’s website at www.finlayminerals.com

On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Robert F. Brown
President, CEO & Director

Neither the TSXV nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Information: This news release includes certain ‘forward-looking information’ and ‘forward-looking statements’ (collectively, ‘forward-looking statements’) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements in this news release that address events or developments that we expect to occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, although not always, identified by words such as ‘expect’, ‘plan’, ‘anticipate’, ‘project’, ‘target’, ‘potential’, ‘schedule’, ‘forecast’, ‘budget’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’ or ‘believe’ and similar expressions or their negative connotations, or that events or conditions ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘should’ or ‘might’ occur. All such forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made. Forward-looking statements in this news release include statements regarding, among others, the exploration plans for the Properties and the potential exercise of Freeport’s option to acquire an interest in the Properties. Although Finlay believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploration successes, and continued availability of capital and financing and general economic, market or business conditions. These forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions including, among other things, assumptions regarding general business and economic conditions, the timing and receipt of regulatory and governmental approvals, the ability of Finlay and other parties to satisfy stock exchange and other regulatory requirements in a timely manner, the availability of financing for Finlay’s proposed transactions and programs on reasonable terms, and the ability of third-party service providers to deliver services in a timely manner. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, and accordingly undue reliance should not be put on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Finlay does not assume any obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

Source

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Sector Rotation Update: Value Stocks and Bonds Lead the Way!

Stock 1 Min Read

Stocks vs. bonds? In this video, Julius breaks down the asset allocation outlook and why defensive sectors, large-cap value, and bonds may continue to outperform in this volatile market. He starts at the asset allocation level using Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) to analyze stocks vs bonds performance, then highlights the ongoing defensive sector rotation, and identifies strength in large-cap value stocks.

To close out the show, Julius dives into stock-specific opportunities based on the relative rotation of sector constituents, pointing to potential leadership shifts as market volatility rises.

This video was originally published on April 17, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

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Breadth Maps Are A Bloodbath, BUT Has The Bounce Begun?

Stock 1 Min Read

In this video, Grayson unveils StockCharts’ new Market Summary ChartPack—an incredibly valuable new ChartPack packed full of pre-built charts covering breadth, sentiment, volatility data and MUCH MORE!

From there, Grayson then breaks down what he’s seeing on the current Market Summary dashboard, illustrating how he’s putting this invaluable tool to work in the current climate. He highlights weakness in Small Cap stocks, uses the Factors Map to pinpoint the groups that investors are gravitating to, and explains why the sea of red across the breadth maps continues to be a clear indication of the weakness in this market.

This video originally premiered on April 18, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

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Stock

Stay Ahead of the Stock Market: Key Bond Market Signals Explained with Charts

Stock 5 Mins Read

It was another erratic week in the stock market. There were several market-moving events sprinkled throughout this short trading week, including earnings, escalation of tariff wars, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. This extended to wild swings in the bond market as well.

We had several positive earnings from banks and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX). Others, such as UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), disappointed, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) lower by 1.33%.

Chairman Powell stated that tariffs could increase inflation. This would cause economic growth to slow down and unemployment to increase. The hope is that inflation is transitory, and, after it becomes stable, the Fed can continue to focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

It’s an insecure time for investors, and many feel the pain. You’re probably wondering how long this pain will go on for. In an uncertain environment, the best you can do is turn to the bond market.

It’s All About Bonds

The recent wild swinging market activity can be encapsulated in the price action of Treasury yields. Since 2024, yields have been swinging up and down. In the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from 3.60% to 4.81%, and when the range is this wide, it’s an indication of economic instability. Not to mention, economic instability could result in a weaker economy.

The daily chart of the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) gives you an idea of the range of yields in the last year. More recently, the yield has risen from 3.89% to 4.59%, and has now pulled back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. Yields have been seeing some large up and down swings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when stock prices fall, bond prices rise. Since bond yields move inversely to bond prices, you’d expect yields to fall. This scenario isn’t playing out. Instead, we’re seeing yields move erratically while bond prices remain suppressed. There needs to be stability in bond yields before a stock market recovery, and one way to do that is to monitor the chart of the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, referred to as the MOVE Index ($MOVE).

The MOVE Index tracks bond volatility. Think of it as the bond counterpart to the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX). The chart below displays the $MOVE/$VIX relationship, with the correlation between the two in the lower panel.

FIGURE 2. THE MOVE INDEX VS. VIX. A high correlation between the MOVE Index and VIX suggests interest rates and stock prices are tightly connected. A lower correlation would indicate stability in equities.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The two have been highly correlated since the end of March, which indicates that stocks and interest rates are tightly connected. This means the wild up and down swings in equities could continue. When the two are less correlated, we can expect equities to start settling down. Looking at the above chart, a correlation of 0.80 would be sufficient for signs of stability.

Both $VIX and $MOVE have come back slightly, but their correlation is at 0.93, which is relatively high.

Be sure to save both charts displayed in this article to your ChartLists. They could alert you to stability in the stock market ahead of other indicators.

The Bottom Line

Until stability returns, you could do the following:

  • Stay on the sidelines and keep some dry powder.
  • Invest in risk-off instruments such as gold and silver.
  • Park some of your money in defensive sectors.

Equities could slide lower before stability returns. If this happens, you could pick up some growth stocks for a bargain.

An empowered investor comes out ahead after market instability. So monitor the market closely and, when the time is right, make wise investment decisions.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.50% on the week, at 5282.70, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.66% on the week at 39,142.23; Nasdaq Composite down 2.62% on the week at 16,286.45.
  • $VIX down 21.06% on the week, closing at 29.65.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU); Just Eat Takeaway.com (JTKWY); Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Haliburton (HAL), Tesla (TSLA), Boeing Co. (BA), International Business Machines (IBM) and others reporting.
  • 30-Year Mortgage Rates
  • March New Home Sales and Building Permits
  • April S&P PMI
  • April Consumer Sentiment
  • Fed speeches from Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Stock

When in Doubt, Follow the Leadership

Stock 5 Mins Read

Reflecting on the price action over this shortened holiday week, I’m struck by how the leadership trends have not really changed too much. We’ve observed bombed-out market breadth indicators, and the S&P 500 remains clearly below its 200-day moving average despite a strong upside swing off the early April market low.

But how much as the leadership of this market changed over the last couple weeks? I would argue that conditions remain fairly consistent over that period, and are still not overwhelmingly bullish.

Defensive Sectors Still Outperforming Offense

Here’s one of my favorite charts for analyzing offense vs. defense, a chart that holds a place of honor on my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList. We’re comparing the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples using both cap-weighted and equal-weighted ETFs.

When the ratios are going higher, investors are favoring “things you want” over “things you need”, which implies optimism for economic growth. When the ratios slope lower, that suggests more defensive positioning as investors are skeptical of growth prospects.

We can see that the cap-weighted version of this ratio made a peak in January, while the equal-weighted version made its own top in February. Both ratios have been in a fairly consistent downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, even through last week’s sudden spike on tariff policy changes.

How bullish do I want to be when these ratios are sloping lower? Generally speaking, I’ve found that until investors start believing in the upside potential of Consumer Discretionary over the relative defense of Consumer Staples, it’s best to remain on the sidelines.

Using the RRG to Visualize Offense vs. Defense

While I often refer to relative strength ratios of sector ETFs vs. the S&P 500 index, I also enjoy leveraging the power of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG®) to monitor a series of relative strength ratios in one simple but powerful visualization.

Here, I’m showing the 11 S&P 500 economic sectors relative to the S&P 500, and I’m highlighting Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples to monitor their relative positions. If you click “Animate” for this visualization, you’ll see that toward the end of 2024, offense was clearly outperforming defense. The XLY was in the Leading quadrant, the XLP was in the Lagging quadrant, and the rotations suggested a classic bull market configuration.

Fast-forward to February and March and you’ll see how Consumer Discretionary rotated into the Weakening and then Lagging quadrant. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples strengthened during that same period. At this point, the RRG is telling me defense over offense, in a classic bearish configuration.

Sticking With Groceries, Guns, and Gold

So, given the bearish leadership configuration in spite of a sudden bounce of the April market low, where can we find potential opportunities? I’ll highlight three ideas that I’ll summarize as “Groceries, Guns, and Gold.”

Playing off the “things you need” theme implied above, grocery retailer Kroger Co. (KR) has managed to pound out a fairly consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. With improving momentum and a new 12-month relative high this week, this is a chart continuing in a clear uptrend despite broad market weakness.  By the way, KR was one of the Top Ten Charts for April 2025 I presented with Grayson Roze!

Defense stocks like Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) have experienced an upside resurgence given geopolitical instability in 2025. From a technical perspective, I love how charts like NOC have rallied since mid-February, while most stocks, as well as our equity benchmarks, have been trending lower! There’s a significant resistance level to overcome around $550, but a confirmed break higher could open the door to further gains.

Gold has experienced an incredible run so far in 2025, finishing the week up 26% for the year compared to the S&P 500’s 10% loss over the same period. Similar to the chart of NOC, Newmont Corporation (NEM) is addressing a key resistance level from a major high in October 2024. But, so far in 2025, NEM has been scoring higher highs and higher lows, potentially building momentum for a break to a new all-time high.

It can be super tempting to consider the April low as “the bottom” and go all-in on growth stocks and offensive plays. But, given the lack of leadership rotation in April, I’m inclined to stick with charts that remain in strong uptrends during uncertain times.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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