1. Imperial Metals (TSX:III)

Year-to-date gain: 333.7 percent
Market cap: C$1.4 billion
Share price: C$7.98

Imperial Metals is a mine development and production company with operations in British Columbia, Canada.

It holds a 30 percent interest in the Red Chris mine in BC’s Golden Triangle, with the remainder owned by Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM). Imperial also fully owns the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, which reopened in June 2022, and the Huckleberry copper mine, which has been under care and maintenance since 2016.

Provincial approvals for a 4 meter raise of the embankment at the Mount Polley tailings storage facility have been the subject of a lawsuit after the Xatśūll First Nation applied for an interim injunction challenging them in April.

A June 30 update reported that the BC Supreme Court had reserved judgment on the case following a four day hearing. The Supreme Court ultimately dismissed the Xatśūll First Nation’s application for the injunction and judicial review of the approvals on August 6. Imperials’ most recent update on the case came on September 3, when the Xatśūll First Nation filed a notice of appeal to overturn the dismissal of the judicial reviews. However, it did not appeal the injunction decision, meaning the company can complete the raise and continue mining at Mount Polley.

On August 29, Imperial announced that it received approval for a permit amendment allowing the company to expand Mount Polley’s operations and extend its operating life, including pit development and expansion of storage areas within the existing mine site footprint.

In the company’s Q3 production report for Red Chris, released on October 23, it indicated that total copper production at the mine increased 10 percent year-over-year to 20.9 million pounds, up from 18.98 million pounds in Q3 2024. Through the first nine months of the year, copper production increased even more, rising 20 percent to 67.51 million pounds from 56.37 million pounds during the same period of 2024.

The most recent update from Imperial came on November 27, when it released an exploration update from its Huckleberry mine, reporting it completed all nine holes of its 2025 diamond drill campaign testing an area southwest of the Main Zone. One hole returned a grade of 0.5 percent copper over 52.7 meters, including an intersection of 0.81 percent copper and 0.23 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold over 22.6 meters.

Shares of Imperial reached a year-to-date high of C$7.95 on December 10.

2. Meridian Mining (TSX:MNO)

Year-to-date gain: 313.33 percent
Market cap: C$656.72 million
Share price: C$1.55

Meridian Mining is an exploration and development company that is currently developing its flagship Cabaçal copper-gold project in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The project license covers a 50 square kilometer area and hosts an 11 kilometer volcanogenic massive sulfide corridor containing gold, copper and silver.

A prefeasibility study released March 10 demonstrates a post-tax base case net present value of US$984 million with an internal rate of return of 61 percent and a payback period of 17 months. The project has a predicted mine life of 10.6 years with total life of mine production of 169,647 metric tons of copper.

The included mineral resource estimate for Cabaçal shows a measured and indicated resource of 204,470 metric tons of contained copper from 51.43 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 0.4 percent. It also hosts significant gold and silver resources.

Additionally, Meridian reported on May 8 that it has hired Ausenco Brazil as the lead engineer to complete a definitive feasibility study for Cabaçal, targeting the first half of 2026 for completion.

Meridian has been carrying out an extensive exploration program at the site as part of the study.

The company announced results from the final phase of the drill program on October 7, when it reported significant copper grades. It highlighted an interval of 1.4 percent copper equivalent over 27.5 meters, including an intersection of 6.1 percent copper equivalent over 6.4 meters.

The company stated that the drill program yielded robust grades of gold, copper and silver mineralization, which will contribute to the mineral resource and reserve upgrades included in the definitive feasibility study. It also reported exploration success at the Cigarra target.

On November 3, Meridian announced that the State of Mato Grosso had formally approved the preliminary license for Cabaçal, which the company stated is the first of three licenses required to commence operations. Meridian said that it would now turn its attention to its application for an installation license. If approved, the installation license would allow the company to begin construction at the site.

Shares of Meridian reached a year-to-date high of C$1.65 on December 4.

3. St. Augustine Gold and Copper (TSX:SAU)

Year-to-date gain: 300 percent
Market cap: C$331.75 million
Share price: C$0.32

St. Augustine Gold and Copper is a development company focused on its King-king copper-gold project in the Philippines’ Davao de Oro province. The project consists of 184 mining claims.

On May 30, St. Augustine entered into an agreement with the National Development Corporation (Nadecor) to acquire a 100 percent interest in Nadecor’s wholly owned subsidiary Kingking Milling, which holds the development rights to King-king. Under the terms of the deal, Nadecor will receive C$9.02 million convertible into 185 million shares.

The project’s exploration and development permits are held by Kingking Mining, which remains a 40/40/20 joint venture between St. Augustine, Nadecor and Queensberry Mining and Development. The release also includes details of new ore sales and royalty agreements between Kingking Milling and Kingking Mining.

On June 18, St. Augustine completed a debt conversion with Queensberry Mining, converting C$1.67 million in debt owed to Queensbury into 25.31 million common shares of St. Augustine at C$0.066 per share.

A follow-up announcement from Queensberry Mining stated that the shares represent a 2.5 percent stake in St. Augustine, increasing Queensberry’s holdings in the company to 52 percent of the total issued and outstanding shares.

As for Q3, on July 31, the company released an updated feasibility study for the project. Based on a copper price of US$4.30 per pound and a gold price of US$2,150 per ounce, the project’s economics included an after-tax net present value of US$4.18 billion, with an internal rate of return of 34.2 percent and a payback period of 1.9 years.

The report estimates a 31 year mine life with average annual production of 96,411 metric tons of payable copper and 185,828 ounces of gold. The six phase development plan will see higher average production in the first five years at 129,000 metric tons of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold.

On October 8, St. Augustine announced that it had engaged with Stantec Consulting and Independent Mining Consultants to produce a definitive feasibility study for Kingking. The company said the study will optimize key recommendations from the pre-feasibility study, including a chloride leach process to improve recovery from low-grade sulfide stockpiles early in the mine life, as well as increased throughput capacity.

Shares of St. Augustine Gold and Copper reached a year-to-date high of C$0.58 on July 29.

4. Trilogy Metals (TSX:TMQ)

Year-to-date gain: 269.23 percent
Market cap: C$1.07 billion
Share price: C$6.24

Trilogy Metals is a polymetallic exploration and development company working to advance its Upper Kobuk mineral projects in Northern Alaska, US, which it owns in a 50/50 joint venture with South32 (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF).

Its most advanced asset is the Arctic copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver project, which is in the feasibility stage.

In an updated feasibility study from February 2023, the company reported annual payable production volumes of 148.68 million pounds of copper, 172.6 million pounds of zinc, 25.75 million pounds of lead, 32,538 ounces of gold and 2.77 million ounces of silver. After tax, the study pegs the project’s net present value at US$1.11 billion, with an internal rate of return of 22.8 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years.

Trilogy’s other key asset is the Bornite copper-cobalt project located 25 kilometers southwest of its Arctic project. The site hosts widespread mineralization and has seen historic exploration dating back to the 1950s.

A preliminary economic assessment for Bornite, dated January 15, established an after-tax net present value of US$393.9 million, with an internal rate of return of 20 percent and a payback period of 4.4 years.

The updated mineral resource included with the report estimates an inferred resource of 6.53 billion pounds of copper with an average grade of 1.42 percent from 208.9 million metric tons of ore.

Trilogy’s Upper Kobuk assets are among the mineral projects dependent on the approval and construction of the Ambler Access Road, a planned 211 kilometer industrial road through Alaska.

Trilogy’s share price saw substantial gains in October after the US Senate repealed a land management plan that prevented the construction of the access road due to environmental concerns.

Additionally, on October 6, Trilogy entered into a binding letter of intent that will see the US Department of Defense (DoD) invest US$17.8 million in Trilogy in exchange for 8.22 million Trilogy shares, or 10 percent of the company. The DoD will also hold warrants for an additional 7.5 percent, exercisable only after the road is constructed.

The funds are earmarked for exploration and development of the Upper Kobuk projects.

According to the release, the DoD will work to facilitate financing for the road’s construction and collaborate with Trilogy to expedite mine permitting using the FAST-41 process.

In an update on October 24, Trilogy stated that the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority executed the right-of-way permits for the Ambler Access Road with the US Army Corps of Engineers, the National Parks Service and the Bureau of Land Management, which re-established the necessary federal authorizations to advance the project.

Shares of Trilogy reached a year-to-date high of C$14.70 on October 14.

5. Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX:NDM)

Year-to-date gain: 234.12 percent
Market cap: C$1.53 billion
Share price: C$2.84

Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on the Pebble project, a copper-molybdenum-gold-silver project located 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska.

Pebble, which the company says is “one of the greatest stores of mineral wealth ever discovered,” hosts a measured and indicated copper resource of 6.5 billion metric tons and an inferred copper resource of 4.5 billion metric tons.

The Pebble property’s measured and indicated resources for molybdenum, gold and silver total 1.26 million metric tons, 53.82 million ounces and 249.3 million ounces, respectively.

The project stalled in 2020 during the permitting phase following a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) veto that suggested the proposed mine would damage the Bristol Bay watershed.

Early in 2024, the Supreme Court declined to hear the matter on procedural grounds, sending it back to the federal district court and the federal circuit of appeals before the Supreme Court would hear it.

Northern Dynasty spent the rest of 2024 advancing its case in Alaska’s state court. In March of that year, it announced the filing of actions to vacate the EPA’s veto.

In 2025, shares of Northern Dynasty began to surge following Trump’s March 20 executive order that called for expedited approvals for domestic mineral production and included copper as a strategically important mineral.

Since Trump became president, Northern Dynasty has been attempting to work with the EPA to vacate the veto on the project. On February 18, the company agreed to grant the EPA a requested 90 day extension to allow for review by the new leadership in the agency, and granted a further 30 day extension on May 14 and a 20 day extension on June 12.

Although the company had hoped to reach a settlement in early July, it ultimately was forced to file a motion for summary judgment on July 17 to have the EPA veto removed.

The most recent update came on October 8, when Northern Dynasty reported that it had filed a brief with the court and presented arguments as to why the veto should be removed. The company’s president and CEO stated in the release that he believes the company has a strong case.

On November 19, the company provided an updated timeline, noting delays due to the US Federal Government shutdown. It said the Department of Justice must file its opening brief by February 16, 2026, and plaintiffs must file their response by April 15. Northern Dynasty stated that, while it understands the challenges, it believes the extension of the original January 2 date is excessive and would prefer the government withdraw its veto.

The most recent update from the case came on December 1, when the company reported that the National Mining Association, the American Exploration and Mining Association, the Alaska Mining Association and the US Chamber of Commerce filed amicus briefs in support of their case.

The three associations’ summary of their argument began, “This case is exceptionally important to Amicis members, the mining industry, and the nation’s economy. The proposed mine – which the US EPA has unlawfully vetoed – will provide a crucial source of copper for construction, transportation, electrical and electronic projects, industrial machinery, and defense applications.”

Shares of Northern Dynasty reached a year-to-date high of C$3.89 on October 14.

FAQs for investing in copper

Copper supply in 2026

A significant copper story that developed in 2025 was strained supply. Throughout the year, significant events dragged on the availability of mined copper, delaying its arrival to global markets.

Early on, there was a temporary shutdown of BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world. However, the most significant disruption came late in the year, when 800,000 metric tons (MT) of wet material poured into the primary Grasberg block cave (GBC) at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The incident cost seven workers their lives and halted production across the operation.

While the company plans to restart the Big Gossan and Deep Level zones before the end of 2025, a phased restart at the GBC won’t start until the middle of 2026, with full operations not resuming until 2027.

Elsewhere, a seismic event at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in May caused flooding and forced the temporary suspension of mining activities. Although some underground operations have resumed, the company is focused on dewatering the lower portions of the mine.

Since the incident, Ivanhoe has been processing stockpiled materials, but in an update on December 3, it suggested that those stores will be depleted during the first quarter of 2026. Subsequently, it has set its 2026 guidance at 380,000 to 420,000 MT before ramping back up to the 500,000 to 540,000 MT range in 2027.

“Grasberg remains a significant disruption that will persist through 2026, and the situation is similar to constraints at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-kakula, which experienced output cuts this year,’ he said.

‘We believe these outages will keep the market in deficit in 2026.’

Some relief on the copper supply side may come from the restart of operations at First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine. It was forced to shut down in November 2023 after Panama’s supreme court cancelled new 20 year mining contract signed in October 2023. This past Septembe, the Panamanian government ordered a review of the mining lease to restart operations at the site in late 2025 or early 2026.

Similar to Grasberg, restarting mining operations may take some time to return to full production, causing a lag before material from the mine can ease undersupplied market conditions.

Copper demand in 2026

Copper demand is on the rise due to demand from the energy transition, artificial intelligence (AI) and the expansion of data centers, as well as the rapid urbanization of the Global South. However, in 2025, significant demand was also driven by US tariff concerns, as traders have worked to import refined material into the country.

“A huge amount of this tightness has to do with US tariff concerns with refined copper inflows into the US having jumped MT over the year, putting inventory in the country to 750,000 MT,” she said.

Scott-Gray pointed to a “perfect storm” brewing in 2025’s fourth quarter , including a warming outlook driven by easing China-US tensions, US interest rate cuts and China’s 15th five year plan, set to run from 2026 to 2031.

Historically, one of the biggest demand drivers for copper has been the Chinese real estate sector; however, tighter regulations, high debt and low liquidity led to its collapse in 2021, even though the Chinese government has instituted several policies over the past several years to stimulate the sector, to no avail.

According to Reuters, Chinese home prices are set to fall 3.7 percent in 2025, and are expected to decline into the new year as well. Despite these issues, the Chinese economy proved to be robust in 2025 and is expected to post growth of 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.8 percent in 2026, fueled by high-tech exports.

Additionally, the five-year plan outlays upgrades to the metals sector and growth in new energy.

“Weakness in the property market is likely to continue in 2026, but the story for copper is constructive. Policy focus and capital are expected to prioritize expanding the electricity grid, upgrading manufacturing, renewables and AI-related data centers. These copper-intensive areas are set to more than compensate for a subdued property market, yielding net growth in China’s copper demand next year,” White said.

Copper crunch keeps building

“These things are taking years to fix — so let’s say it takes some of them a year to get fixed and back on track, some of them two years. We’re looking at 2027; by then, the copper demand side will have kicked up even more. My base case is actually for copper deficits to broaden in the next couple of years, then just continue broadening,” he said.

The supply side is also facing headwinds as new operations haven’t come online to replace existing mines that are increasingly challenged by declining grades. While there is new supply in the pipeline, like Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) brownfield Cactus project and the Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP joint venture Resolution project, both in Arizona, they’re still years away.

“While new projects may add tonnage at the margin, demand growth is likely to outpace any supply additions, which points to further supply deficits that escalate over the coming years,” White said.

A May 1 report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development notes that demand is expected to grow by 40 percent by 2040, requiring US$250 billion in investment capital and the construction of 80 new mines.

The report stated that half of the world’s copper reserves are currently located in just five countries.

Chile, Australia, Peru, the DRC and Russia, with structural challenges setting up that go beyond declining grades, most notably geopolitical risk and long mining times.

The scale of the challenges was recently outlined in a report from Wood Mackenzie, which forecast demand increasing by 24 percent to 43 million MT per year by 2035. To balance the market, the report states that 8 million MT of new supply will be required, along with 3.5 million MT from scrap.

Investor takeaway

Overall, according to the International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG) most recent forecast, released on October 8, mine production is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2026 to 23.86 million MT.

However, refined production is only predicted to increase by 0.9 percent to 28.58 million MT.

Regarding demand, the group stated that refined copper use is expected to grow by 2.1 percent to 28.73 million MT in 2026, outpacing production growth and leading to a 150,000 MT deficit by the end of the year.

White is bullish on copper in 2026, citing low inventories and mine and concentrate deficits. He also suggested tariff threats may not be over, and that regional price differentials and high physical premiums are likely to continue.

With copper deficits expected to accelerate in 2026, prices are set up to hit record highs. Scott-Gray said 2026 could see the average price climb to US$10,635 per MT, with higher prices likely to be off-putting to more price-sensitive buyers.

Additionally, with long-term premiums near record highs, she said market players may look to make purchases on a “just-in-time” basis from alternative sources, such as bonded warehouses or directly from smelters.

Depending on price and supply, consumers could also look to swap out copper for aluminum where practical, though Scott-Gray noted that the switch would have its own limitations.

In data provided by Scott-Gray from StoneX’s Base Metal Front Desk Call, 40 percent of respondents to an LME Metals Poll believe that copper will be the best-performing base metal in 2026.