Doug Casey of InternationalMan.com and the podcast Doug Casey’s Take shares his thoughts on gold, silver and more heading into the new year.
Casey, who is also a best-selling author, sees higher prices for both precious metals ahead.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Aided by rising demand for permanent magnets, the rare earths market entered 2025 on firmer footing, with prices and investor sentiment trending higher.
That early optimism, however, was quickly overtaken by mounting geopolitical risk as US-China trade tensions returned rare earths to the center of global supply chain concerns.
Through the first quarter, uncertainty around tariffs and the prospect of tighter Chinese controls weighed heavily on downstream industries and reinforced the strategic value of rare earths.
That risk crystallized in early April, when China issued Announcement 18, a sweeping export control regime covering a range of medium and heavy rare earths — including terbium, dysprosium, samarium and yttrium — as well as related oxides, alloys, compounds and permanent magnet technologies.
Framed by Beijing as a national security and nonproliferation measure, the policy added a new layer of regulatory friction to supply chains underpinning electric vehicles, defense systems, clean energy and advanced manufacturing.
The response was swift. In Washington, the Trump administration moved to reassess US critical minerals security, singling out rare earths as a strategic vulnerability.
“An overreliance on foreign critical minerals and their derivative products could jeopardize US defense capabilities, infrastructure development, and technological innovation,” the White House said, underscoring a shift from market-driven concern to national security imperative.
For Jon Hykawy, president and chief executive at Stormcrow Capital, the Trump administration’s rare earths ambitions and its understanding of the minerals markets was the most impactful trend of 2025, commenting, “By far the biggest impact was the implication from re-elected US President Donald Trump that rare earths and other critical materials, to be found in Ukraine or Greenland or Canada or wherever, are the most bigly important things, ever.’
The seasoned market analyst also questions the administration’s broader goals.
“Critical materials are, to me, what is necessary for ensuring that important projects can be completed,’ he said.
‘But President Trump has also decided that climate change is a scam, that electrified vehicles and wind power are terrible and coal and oil are where it’s at,’ Hykawy continued.
‘In that case, whether or not Trump has even the concept of a plan regarding what a rare earth actually is, and he isn’t using ‘rare earth’ as a catch-all phrase for ‘weird metal that I don’t know how to spell,’ then rare earths or lithium are not critical materials, as far as the USA should be concerned: if you don’t need ‘em, they ain’t critical.”
By mid-year, the impact of China’s controls was being felt most acutely in the automotive sector. European suppliers warned of production shutdowns as licensing delays rippled through tightly integrated supply chains.
The Asian nation controls roughly 70 percent of global rare earths mine output, as well as 85 percent of refining capacity and about 90 percent of magnet manufacturing.
That concentration left markets highly exposed when Beijing escalated restrictions again in October, expanding export controls to cover a total of 12 rare earths and associated permanent magnets.
Although some measures were later paused through November 2026, earlier dual-use restrictions stayed in place, reinforcing the perception that rare earths are now a tool of geopolitical leverage.
“At its core, China has shown a greater willingness to use its dominance in critical minerals to advance its trade and geopolitical influence, potentially causing significant disruptions to global supply chains for industries like automotive, aerospace, defense, and electronics,” states a S&P Global Energy report.
Against that backdrop, efforts to diversify supply accelerated.
In the US, government support moved from rhetoric to capital. The Department of Defense committed US$400 million to MP Materials (NYSE:MP) to expand processing at Mountain Pass and build a second domestic magnet plant, securing a US-based source of permanent magnets for defense applications.
Days later, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced a US$500 million agreement with MP to supply recycled rare earth magnets for hundreds of millions of devices starting in 2027, tying supply chain security to sustainability.
As Hykawy explained, these developments are setting the stage for ex-China supply:
“We are at the beginning of producing, processing and utilizing rare earths in a supply chain entirely outside of China. There is absolutely nothing that prevents us from building that western supply chain except time and money. Rare earth deposits of all types, including ionic clays and their relatively inexpensive production of heavy rare earths, are readily available outside of China.”
He went on to note that there has been a misconception about the impacts of rare earths production, paired with a lack of investment and expertise that has prevented a faster buildout.
“It’s a media cliché that rare earth mining and processing is somehow much more destructive to the environment than other types of mining, but that’s also just plain wrong,” Hykawy added.
“Unfortunately, building that supply chain will take money and, especially, time, because we need the people who know how to do all of this, and there is no substitute for the time required to give them their required experience.”
As global demand for rare earths accelerates and supply chain risks heighten, experts believe the sector’s importance on the global stage will keep intensifying.
During a Benchmark Week presentation, Michael Finch of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence explained that rare earths have “become far more strategic in nature” over recent years, with applications spanning electric vehicles, consumer electronics, wind energy, robotics and modern military systems.
While permanent magnets remain a headline driver, non-magnetic uses now account for a larger share of total demand, underscoring the material’s broad industrial importance.
Demand projections for rare earths forecast robust growth, underpinned key segment expansion.
According to Finch’s data an average 100 kW EV traction motor contains roughly five kilograms of neodymium-praseodymium and about one kilogram of dysprosium oxide, illustrating how electrification is fueling consumption.
Additionally, permanent magnet applications are projected to grow at an 8.5 percent compound annual rate through 2030, with magnetic and non-magnetic uses expected to reach parity over the next decade.
Military demand is also a significant driver.
“(There are) 418 kilograms of rare earths going into an F 35 type two fighter (jet), 2.6 metric tons going into a type 51 (naval) destroyer, and 4.6 metric tons going into a Virginia class submarine,” said Finch.
As stated, supply remains heavily concentrated in China which controls 91 percent of the overall supply chain, from mining to permanent magnets. Finch emphasized that this concentration creates a single-country risk, noting, “When a country owns so much of a supply chain, it’s easy to use it as a bargaining chip.”
The global rare earths supply chain is gradually diversifying. North America and Africa are emerging as key growth regions, with projects expected to significantly expand non-Chinese production in the coming decade.
Finch pointed to Africa, which could account for up to 7 percent of global supply after 2030, driven by low capital intensity and favorable mining costs. Despite this progress, he cautioned that complete self-sufficiency outside China remains a distant prospect, emphasizing the need for rapid investment and strategic coordination to secure supply.
In addition to the Department of Defense’s MP Materials investment, the US government has established a price floor for NdPr oxide, the high-value rare earths ingredient inside permanent magnets.
During a fireside chat at Benchmark Week, Ryan Corbett, CFO of MP Materials, explained the impact of the price floor in support of the burgeoning US supply chain. He told the audience that the deal is “absolutely transformational,’ and pointed to China’s ability to control pricing by flooding or starving the market. “What good is it to invest billions of dollars if the second you turn your refinery on, prices go from US$170 to US$45?” said Corbett.
In October, the Trump administration announced another strategic investment aimed at reshoring critical supply chains through a US$1.4 billion public-private partnership with Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies.
Under the agreement, the Commerce Department will provide US$50 million in CHIPS Act incentives for neodymium-iron-boron magnet production in exchange for an equity stake, alongside up to US$700 million in conditional Defense Department loans to support facilities targeting up to 10,000 metric tons of annual output.
On the private investment side, Rare earths developer Pensana (LSE:PRE,OTCPL:PNSPF) secured a US$100 million strategic investment to advance its mine-to-magnet ambitions in the US, at the end of 2025.
Although the rare earths sector saw several multimillion-dollar deals in 2025, exploration capital remains scarce.
According to S&P Global’s Senior Principal Analyst, Mining Studies & Mine Economics, Paul Manalo the rare earths account for 1 percent of global exploration budgets, however, that number has improved in recent years.
“For the sixth consecutive year, budgets for rare earths were up reaching US$155 million in 2025; it’s the highest level since 2012,” Manalo said during the S&P Global Market Intelligence 2026 Corporate Exploration Strategies webinar.
Although exploration budgets are growing, the expert said 80 percent of that capital is being deployed in only four countries: Australia, Brazil, USA and Canada. “Just like in other minor metals, the juniors are the primary drivers for exploration of rare earths, with only a few majors dabbling in it,” Manalo told listeners, adding, “There are few rare earth mines outside of China, so most pending exploration is for late stage projects.”
The government funding and strategic stockpile proposal were acknowledged as a good starting point by Stormcrow Capital’s Hykawy, who also cautioned that they may not be as meaningful as markets anticipate.
“I give the efforts so far an ‘A’ for enthusiasm but a ‘C-‘ for effectiveness. From what I have seen, the powers-that-be are beavering away to create a supply chain that can provide what the world is demanding, today,” he said.
“Unfortunately, many of their efforts can’t bear fruit for 5 years or more, and none of these agencies seemed to think it worthwhile to try and evaluate what will be required in 5 or 10 years.”
More long-term foresight is needed.
“Technology giveth, but technology also taketh away, and while no one can be sure what the technology-driven need will be in 5 or 10 years, we should at least try to incorporate that into planning,” he said.
“If the wrong projects are being backed, the economics for that producer or processor in 5 or 10 years are not going to look good and money and time will have been completely wasted.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (January 9) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.
Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.
Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$90,165.72, down by 0.7 percent over 24 hours.
Bitcoin price performance, January 9, 2025.
Chart via TradingView.
Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,069.12, down by 1.2 percent over the last 24 hours.
BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), a major global financial services firm, has begun converting customer cash holdings into digital tokens on its specialized platform, according to a Friday announcement. This step supports the bank’s goal of offering flexible digital cash for large-scale financial operations. Early users include top banks and tech-forward companies.
The system starts by handling security deposits and loan margins, using digital records on a secure, private digital ledger to mirror clients’ existing cash claims at the bank. It follows BNY’s standard rules for safety, legal checks and oversight. Actual cash amounts are tracked in the bank’s regular systems to meet government reporting needs.
Rain, a payments company using stable digital dollars, announced it raised US$250 million in its latest funding round led by ICONIQ, with other investors joining in. This values the company at US$1.95 billion and brings its total funding to over US$338 million since its earlier rounds.
Rain provides businesses with one-stop tools to create digital dollar cards accepted anywhere Visa (NYSE:V) works, add rewards, switch regular money to stable digital dollars, manage secure digital wallets and send payments. According to the company, its technology now handles over US$3 billion in yearly transactions for more than 200 partners like Western Union, Nuvei, and KAST. These services reach 2.5 billion people for daily buys like coffee or flights, plus business costs such as cloud computing and online ads.
Ripple has received regulatory approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to scale its crypto-enabled payments services in the country.
The approval covers both cryptoasset registration and an Electronic Money Institution license, allowing UK businesses to use Ripple’s platform for cross-border payments involving digital assets.
The authorization comes through Ripple Markets UK Ltd and positions the firm to operate under tighter regulatory scrutiny ahead of the UK’s broader crypto rulebook.
The approval arrived just as the FCA outlines a transition to full licensing for crypto firms by 2027.
Ripple has long treated the UK as a strategic hub, with its London office now its largest outside the US. The XRP token rose by 1 percent following the announcement, extending gains of almost 11 percent from the past week.
South Korea plans to allow spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 as part of a wider economic growth and market reform strategy aimed at attracting foreign capital.
Officials pointed to the active trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and Hong Kong as a key reference in lifting long-standing restrictions that barred crypto assets from serving as ETF underlyings.
The move is expected to align with broader financial reforms designed to support South Korea’s bid for inclusion in MSCI’s developed-market index. Regulators are also fast-tracking a second phase of digital asset legislation that will establish a comprehensive framework for stablecoins.
At the same time, authorities are pushing to internationalize the won, including expanding offshore access and introducing 24-hour onshore FX trading by mid-2026.
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has confirmed that crypto firms must obtain full authorization by September 2026 to continue operating under a new regulatory regime launching in 2027.
The change will replace the current registration-only system with a licensing framework that mirrors standards applied to traditional financial products.
Firms will need to apply during a fixed window opening in September 2026, with no automatic conversion for those already registered under existing anti–money laundering rules.
Companies that miss the window face sharp operational limits, including bans on entering new cryptoasset business while awaiting approval.
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Brightstar Resources (BTR:AU) has announced Lord Byron RC Drilling Results and Mineral Resource Upgrade
Download the PDF here.
HIGHLIGHTS
– Binding commitments received to raise approximately $1.2 million through a Placement at $0.009 per share
– Placement participants will receive 1 Attaching Option for each New Share subscribed for under the Placement, exercisable at $0.03 per share, with an expiry date being the same as the Options to be issued under the Options Prospectus dated 2 December 2025
– BPH funded to execute its next phase of hydrocarbon and Cortical Dynamics investments
– The Federal Court hearing for the PEP-11 judicial review application is scheduled for February 20 and 23, 2026
Placement participants will receive 1 free Attaching Option for each Placement Share subscribed for under the Placement, exercisable at $0.03 each with an expiry date being the same as the options to be issued under the Options Prospectus dated 2 December 2025 (‘Attaching Options’).
Oakley Capital Partners Pty Limited (‘Oakley Capital’) and 62 Capital Limited (’62 Capital’) acted as Joint Lead Managers for the Placement. Oakley Capital and 62 Capital will be paid a cash fee of 6% on funds raised under the Placement and an aggregate of 33,555,555 Broker Options (‘Broker Options’) on the same terms as the Attaching Options.
The Attaching Options and Broker Options will be issued on the same day as the Options to be issued under the Options Prospectus and the Company intends to apply for quotation of the Options subject to the Company meeting ASX quotation requirements.
Commenting on the capital raising, Executive Director Mr David Breeze said:
‘We are pleased to have received strong support in the Placement. The funding allows BPH to accelerate the exploration programs to unlock the potential on our gas projects especially with the current gas supply crisis as well as assist the next phase of associate Cortical Dynamic Limited’s expansion. The funding also leaves BPH well-placed ahead of the Federal Court hearing for the PEP-11 judicial review scheduled for February 20 and 23, 2026, where the PEP-11 Joint Venture will seek to overturn the Federal Government’s rejection of the PEP-11 permit extension’
USE OF FUNDS
The proceeds raised under the Placement provide BPH with an enhanced cash position to fund its hydrocarbon projects and to assist in the continued development of Cortical Dynamics.
The intended use of funds will be for:
– $0.85 million – Funding for exploration and development of oil and gas investments
– $0.1 million – For working capital including costs of the offer
– $0.25 million – Funding for Cortical Dynamics
PLACEMENT DETAILS
The Placement offer price of $0.009 per share represents a 18.2% discount to BPH’s last price of $0.0011 per share on Thursday, 8 January 2026, and a 7.8% discount to the 15-day VWAP of $0.00976 per share.
Settlement of the Placement is expected to be completed on or around 14 January 2026.
A total of 12,259,551 Placement Shares, 134,222,222 free Attaching Options, and 33,555,555 Broker Options (pro rata to their management of the Placement) will be issued under ASX Listing Rule 7.1. A total of 121,962,671 Placement Shares will be issued under ASX Listing Rule 7.1A.
The Attaching Options and Broker Options will be issued following the close of the Offer under the Options Prospectus dated 2 December 2025.
Placement Shares will rank equally with existing fully paid ordinary shares.
The Company will issue a supplementary Options Prospectus as soon as possible.
About BPH Energy Limited:
BPH Energy Limited (ASX:BPH) is an Australian Securities Exchange listed company developing biomedical research and technologies within Australian Universities and Hospital Institutes.
The company provides early stage funding, project management and commercialisation strategies for a direct collaboration, a spin out company or to secure a license.
BPH provides funding for commercial strategies for proof of concept, research and product development, whilst the institutional partner provides infrastructure and the core scientific expertise.
BPH currently partners with several academic institutions including The Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research and Swinburne University of Technology (SUT).
Source:
BPH Energy Limited
Contact:
David Breeze
admin@bphenergy.com.au
www.bphenergy.com.au
T: +61 8 9328 8366
News Provided by ABN Newswire via QuoteMedia
BPH Energy (BPH:AU) has announced Capital raise announcement
Download the PDF here.
Augustus Minerals (AUG:AU) has announced Heritage Approval for Drilling at Music Well
Download the PDF here.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
We also break down next week’s catalysts to watch to help you prepare for the week ahead.
Tech markets spent the first full week of 2026 responding to headlines out of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, where semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) announcements helped drive Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) momentum. This enthusiasm pushed the index to a fresh record midweek before a bout of profit taking and renewed concerns weighed on sentiment heading into Friday (January 9).
The Nasdaq finished the week up 0.95 percent from Monday’s (January 5) open, powered by gains in memory and storage names like Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) after upbeat commentary on next-generation data infrastructure. However, the rally faded as investors rotated into defensive stocks after US President Donald Trump proposed a US$1.5 trillion “Dream Military” budget.
Labor market indicators for the week suggest a continued, gradual cooling in the American job market, supporting the case for future US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
North of the border, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) retreated after briefly hitting a record, mirroring the US market’s rotation in the second half of the week, weighed down by Venezuela oil fears.
Shares of Micron Technology rose 0.12 percent on Monday after the company provided an investor update confirming strong demand for its high-bandwidth memory, critical for AI GPUs, through 2026.
Comments on storage shortages at CES amplified gains on Tuesday, driving an 8.25 percent advance for Micron that day alongside additional memory stocks. The company saw a 6.14 percent weekly gain.
Lockheed Martin jumped by as much as 2.06 percent on Thursday (January 8) after Trump’s Truth Social post prompted an investor rotation to defensive tech stocks.
Sandisk, a company focused on NAND flash, SSDs and memory cards for consumer and AI data center use, jumped as much as 27.57 percent on Tuesday as comments at CES from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930,OTCPL:SSNLF) executives reignited concerns of forthcoming price increases for NAND flash memory.
SanDisk, Lockheed Martin and Micron Technology performance, January 5 to 9, 2026.
Chart via Google Finance.
Tech exchange-traded funds (ETFs) track baskets of major tech stocks, meaning their performance helps investors gauge the overall performance of the niches they cover.
This week, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) advanced by 2.47 percent, while the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) saw a gain of 1.45 percent.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) also increased by 1.98 percent.
Next week will bring bank earnings, starting with JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) on January 12, and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) on January 15. January 15 will also bring the latest quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM).
US producer price index data will hit on January 14, testing Fed interest rate cut bets, while Micron is set to break ground on its US$100 billion New York mega-fab on January 16.
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.