The S&P continues to push higher, with the equity benchmark almost reaching 6300 this week for the first time in history. With so many potential macro headwinds still surrounding us, how can the market continue to reflect so much optimism? On the other hand, when will bulls wake up and realize that this market is obviously overextended and rotate significantly lower?

With the S&P 500 once again achieving new all-time highs, and with Q2 earnings just around the corner, I thought it would be a perfect time to revisit an exercise in probabilistic analysis. Basically, I’ll lay out four different scenarios for the S&P 500 index between now and late August. Which path do you see as the most likely and why? Watch the video, check out the first scenarios, and then cast your vote!

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in May, and check out which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The most bullish scenario would involve the S&P 500 continuing a similar trajectory that we’ve seen off the April low. Growth continues to dominate, tariffs remain essentially a non-issue, volatility remains lower, and the market moves onward and ever upward!

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the uptrend continues, but at a much slower rate? The “mildly bullish scenario” would mean the S&P 500 probably tops out around 6300-6400 but doesn’t get any further. Perhaps a leadership rotation emerges, and technology stocks start to pull back as investors rotate to other sectors and themes. Lack of upside momentum from the largest growth names slows the uptrend in a big way.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Maybe “the top” is already in, and even though July is traditionally a strong month, we see a corrective move into August that brings the S&P 500 down to the 200-day moving average. Bulls and bears would probably feel quite vindicated here, as bulls would see this as a healthy pullback, and bears would see this as a serious wake up call for investors.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

We always need a doomsday scenario, and here we’ll describe how the S&P 500 could go back down to retest the May price gap. If Q2 earnings season becomes all about companies reflecting on a significantly negative impact from potential tariffs, and investors begin to not just complain about overvalued stocks but actually start selling as a result, we could certainly see a downside move to retrace about 38.2% of the April to July uptrend phase.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment on which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Up to this point, the S&P 500 ($SPX) has now stayed above the 6,200-mark for eight straight days. The upside follow-through has been limited, but the drawdown has also been shallow. The onus continues to be on the bears to do something with the stretched state. We discuss this in terms of the CappThesis Market Strength Indicator below.

What Is the Market Strength Indicator (MSI)?

When the market makes strong moves, like they have recently, I like to review our Market Strength Indicator (MSI).  This isn’t some secret, proprietary formula. It’s a simple blend of trend, oscillator indicators, and patterns, factors that we base our market stance upon.

And surprise, surprise, the MSI is as bullish as can be with the SPX at new highs and up 30% in three months.

1. The S&P 500 is trading above each moving average, and each moving average is sloping higher.
2. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams %R are both overbought. We use both of these since it takes a considerable up move to get the RSI to overbought territory. And while the Williams %R swings to extremes much more easily, it can only stay overbought if the market continues to tick higher with minimal drawdowns. Clearly, all of this has been happening.
3. And, of course, two big pattern breakouts remain in play. Two weeks ago, the MSI was even more extreme when we had four patterns in play at the same time.

Here are each of those indicators together on one chart. (We don’t show the patterns here since it would be way too much to display all at once – and that would be an offensive chart crime.)

The clear next question:

Now what?

Market Strength Indicator Now vs. April 7, 2025

First, the obvious. The MSI was completely depressed on April 7 after two months of intense selling and extreme volatility.

Interestingly, though, after that last massive downside gap on April 7, the final bearish pattern target was hit. That set the stage for a bottoming process to potentially begin.

With the pendulum now having completely swung from historically oversold to now extended, does a very bullish MSI suggest the upswing is unsustainable?  

Bulls and bears agree on one thing these days: The pace of the last three months can’t continue, and at any time, a pullback greater than the 3.5% drop from mid-May is going to happen. It’s just a matter of when. 

Now let’s look at the recent times when the MSI got to extreme levels like now.

Market Strength Indicator Now vs. 2023–24

The results are crystal clear. “Extreme” MSI readings are the result of strong technicals, which occur in uptrends. And uptrends tend to last longer than many think is possible or probable.

From this perspective, only once did a correction begin right after a high MSI reading – in July’24. At the time, though, only one bullish pattern was in play (the one with the long-term 6,100 target that was triggered way back in Jan’24). 

Now, of course, we have two live bullish formations, and for the uptrend to persist without a major market disturbance, we’ll need to see the next bout of profit-taking morph into the next set of short-term bullish formations.

Live Patterns

Our two live patterns remain – targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For those to eventually be achieved, though, new, smaller versions will need to be constructed.

Live Patterns

Our two live patterns remain – targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For those to eventually be achieved, though, new, smaller versions will need to be constructed.

If you’re serious about trading or investing, establishing a weekly market routine is a must. But where do you begin?  

In this eye-opening video, Grayson Roze, Chief Strategist at StockCharts, shares the method he uses every week to stay aligned with the market’s biggest drivers — the top 25 stocks by market cap. 

Learn how to build a customized ChartList of these stocks, sort the stocks by market cap, and different ways to review them to spot long-term trends or reversals.

Whether you’re new to charting or a seasoned technician, this routine could transform how you view the market. 

This video originally premiered on July 11, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

The S&P continues to push higher, with the equity benchmark almost reaching 6300 this week for the first time in history. With so many potential macro headwinds still surrounding us, how can the market continue to reflect so much optimism? On the other hand, when will bulls wake up and realize that this market is obviously overextended and rotate significantly lower?

With the S&P 500 once again achieving new all-time highs, and with Q2 earnings just around the corner, I thought it would be a perfect time to revisit an exercise in probabilistic analysis. Basically, I’ll lay out four different scenarios for the S&P 500 index between now and late August. Which path do you see as the most likely and why? Watch the video, check out the first scenarios, and then cast your vote!

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in May, and check out which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The most bullish scenario would involve the S&P 500 continuing a similar trajectory that we’ve seen off the April low. Growth continues to dominate, tariffs remain essentially a non-issue, volatility remains lower, and the market moves onward and ever upward!

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the uptrend continues, but at a much slower rate? The “mildly bullish scenario” would mean the S&P 500 probably tops out around 6300-6400 but doesn’t get any further. Perhaps a leadership rotation emerges, and technology stocks start to pull back as investors rotate to other sectors and themes. Lack of upside momentum from the largest growth names slows the uptrend in a big way.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Maybe “the top” is already in, and even though July is traditionally a strong month, we see a corrective move into August that brings the S&P 500 down to the 200-day moving average. Bulls and bears would probably feel quite vindicated here, as bulls would see this as a healthy pullback, and bears would see this as a serious wake up call for investors.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

We always need a doomsday scenario, and here we’ll describe how the S&P 500 could go back down to retest the May price gap. If Q2 earnings season becomes all about companies reflecting on a significantly negative impact from potential tariffs, and investors begin to not just complain about overvalued stocks but actually start selling as a result, we could certainly see a downside move to retrace about 38.2% of the April to July uptrend phase.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment on which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

As we navigate the evolving stock market landscape, understanding key sectors and their trends is important, especially during earnings season. This week, the spotlight shines on the Financial sector, with several of the largest banks reporting. Five of the top 10 holdings within the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) are on deck: J.P. Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). 

This week we will focus on the Financial sector via XLF and zoom in on one of its top components, Goldman Sachs.

The Financial Sector: A Technical Look at XLF

XLF has been outperforming the S&P 500 ($SPX), experiencing new all-time highs, and has been a leading sector in the most recent market rebound.

Now that all banks that were susceptible to the Fed’s stress test have passed with flying colors, questions loom about whether less stringent regulations will lead to more growth. The sector has not experienced much M&A activity, and the IPO market has yet to come back to a healthy level of activity. However, there is hope that a banking renaissance is on the horizon, and maybe this quarter will give a rosier outlook than more recent forecasts.

Technically, XLF looks promising. Shares broke out to new all-time highs ahead of earnings and are now set up with good risk/reward potential for investors. 

The pattern from which it broke out is a bit of a wonky head-and-shoulders pattern. I’d call this a stretch as it isn’t picture perfect, but the price image presented is close enough to set parameters to trade. 

The breakout on a gap to new highs is extremely bullish, and that gap level could be used as a stop-loss to the downside, worst case should be the rising 50-day moving average. Buyers should come back into the sector there on a dip.

Goldman Sachs (GS): A Bellwether

Goldman Sachs, the largest component in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, reports results on Wednesday morning just days after hitting all-time highs. Investors will be looking for any commentary focused on tariffs and margins. 

Has there been any impact on their results, or have concerns about inflation been overblown? Any earnings pressure on their bottom line could cause ripple effects throughout other sectors like industrials, materials, and technology. 

Shares declined 33% then rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that’s where opportunity may lie. Wouldn’t chase it just yet. I would own for the long term, but price action could be very interesting when they report next week. 

One bold prediction — look for a possible stock split announcement. Since their debut in 1999, shares have never split. Seeing the recent price surge and its size in the Dow, that option should be on the table. 

Technically, shares have been on a tremendous run as they’ve rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that may be where the opportunity lies when they report next week. 

The stock has rallied with a series of gaps along the way. Those gaps tell a story, and it’s worth watching the most recent gap from $690 to $700. Each jump higher has not experienced a full retracement — a gap fill, if you will.

The gaps higher have been very bullish. The first large gap — a breakaway gap — started the main part of this rally. We have seen a series of smaller gaps that helped extend the rally. Now, we may be tiring. Watch the $690 level to see if that gap can hold. If it can’t, then there may be more selling pressure over the near term. 

A healthy pullback given the strong bull run is likely, but buyable. A break below $690 could see a swift move lower to the $665 level. If things turn negative, then the rising 50-day moving average, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level just below $620 would be an ideal entry point from a risk/reward perspective. 

The good news is that any weakness in the stock looks like it should be met with great opportunities to enter the name. The long-term trend is up, and the momentum is there not only in the stock but within the sector. The long-term trader shouldn’t fret earnings; the swing trader may get an opportunity to buy a dip from an overbought condition. The bad news would be that the stock gaps higher again and continues its upward trajectory. 

Beyond Financials: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

While financials take center stage, we want to touch upon another significant company reporting this week: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

JNJ shares have remained relatively flat for the better part of five years. Much of the earnings focus will be on plans to navigate patent expirations. 

Merck acquired Verona last week. The patent cliff will continue to be a hot topic for the entire pharma industry. As for JNJ, it’s confronting the expiration of exclusivity on Stelara, its $10B+ immunology blockbuster drug. The exclusivity expires first in Europe this year and then in the U.S. in 2026.

As for reaction to earnings, don’t expect too much activity. The average move post-results has been +/- 2.05%. Shares have traded lower after five of the last seven times. Shares of the Dow stock are up 8% year-to-date and -9% off their highs.

Technically, there isn’t much to see here. We backed it out to look at price in a five-year weekly range to illustrate that point.

Shares have been in a wide range between roughly $138 to $168 over this lengthy span. Yes, I yawned when I typed this out — it’s that boring. We don’t expect much to change, but there are small setups for a shorter-term swing trader.

The stock, while breaking above the midpoint of this longer-term range, is forming a bullish ascending triangle and has, albeit tight, risk/reward parameters for those looking to trade. 

To the downside, look for the continued near-term uptrend to hold and find support right at the 200-day moving average just below $153. A good entry point in which one could manage risk. 

To the upside, a break above $158 could take shares to their recent highs and slowly and steadily towards the $168 level. The set-up is far from ideal when looking at the longer-term action, but near term, there could be a quick play and maybe, just maybe, shares can finally escape the longer-term neutral range. 

Is the market flashing early signs of a shift?

In this week’s video, Mary Ellen McGonagle breaks down the subtle but telling moves happening under the surface. From strength in semiconductors, home builders, and energy to surging momentum in Bitcoin and silver, Mary Ellen highlights the sectors gaining traction and the technical setups traders should have on their radar.

She also spots stocks breaking above key moving averages, potential reversal patterns, and discusses actionable insights heading into earnings season.

If you’re looking for timely trade ideas and a roadmap to where money is flowing next, don’t miss this breakdown.

This video premiered on July 11, 2025.

You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.