With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered a corrective retracement. The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%).

We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected, and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay that way. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone, in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.

The levels of 25100 and 25300 are likely to act as resistance points in the coming week. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.

Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate the 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range. The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled into the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.

The Nifty FMCG Index languishes in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and Pharma Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are improving their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae