May 3, 2025 – Trading Tech Trends

Stock

Here’s Why A Short-Term Top Might Be Nearing

May 3, 2025 Stock 4 Mins Read

I feel like the short-term risk is turning once again and I’ll explain why in my analysis below. Please don’t misunderstand. I suggested a bottom was in place a few weeks ago and I LOVE what has been happening in terms of manipulation/accumulation and I LOVE the fact that we were able to quickly regain both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA on our major indices.

However, here are the four major indices and where they’re at currently on their respective charts and their next key overhead resistance levels:

Dow Jones

We did manage to close just above the 50-day SMA here, but the Dow Jones still appears vulnerable to me. Given the fact that the S&P 500 has room to run up to what is now major price resistance at 5782, I could see the Dow Jones moving a bit higher to challenge the late-March high at approximately 42750. That could serve as a neckline.

S&P 500

20-day EMA resistance? No problem, went right through. Gap resistance 5500? Ditto. 50-day SMA resistance. Ditto. This rally has been impressive. Key levels of price resistance have failed and this tells me that we’re not going to violate the low at 4835. It’s set in stone, in my opinion. There are still a couple of key resistance levels on the S&P 500 that we’ll have to deal with next week. The first will be the early-April rebound attempt that failed near 5700. Today’s intraday high was 5700. The next one, however, will be the biggest on the chart and that’s where we last failed in late March – at 5782.

NASDAQ 100:

Looks similar to the S&P 500, but I did add the RSI to this chart. During downtrends, RSI 60 tends to be rather big resistance. We see many rallies fail at or near that level. The NDX just crossed RSI 60….barely. At our Friday intraday high, the NASDAQ 100 pulled within 100 points (less than 0.5%) of the late-March high near 20250. I don’t know if we turn here or not, but I do know the risks are elevated.

Russell 2000:

The 197 level offered great price support on multiple occasions, so when we see a heavy-volume breakdown like we saw in early April, we should recognize how important it is to clear that same price resistance on the way back up. We did so on Friday with gusto. I absolutely LOVE the sudden accumulation that’s taken place in the IWM. I believe that will result in a much larger move at some point later this year. But are we due for another round of selling first, perhaps at upcoming price resistance levels marked above? We’ll soon find out.

Be careful ahead, especially if a rising-volume, reversing candle prints on our major indices sometime next week.

Sentiment

Check out this 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE):

We just hit 0.55, showing the most complacency we’ve seen in the past 5 weeks or so. Extreme low readings have previously marked corrections and/or cyclical bear markets and that was one key topping indicator that I discussed back in January/February. Other prior moves down to 0.55 have also resulted in short-term tops. I thought the current .55 reading was worth pointing out for this reason.

Seasonality could also play a role. Early May (through the 5th) tends to provide historical tailwinds, but the middle part of May (6th through 25th) has a history of being rather challenging. The 5th is Monday, so given everything I’ve discussed above and knowing that our bullish seasonal window could soon be closing, watch for a potential reversing candle as a sign to think about reducing risk (covered calls, S&P 500 puts for insurance, moving to cash, etc.).

I’m not ready to definitively call a short-term top here, but I do want to point out that the SHORT-TERM risks of being long right now are growing. Do with that what you may.

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Happy trading!

Tom

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Stock Market Wrap: Stocks Rebound as May Kicks Off with a Bang—What Investors Should Know

May 3, 2025 Stock 5 Mins Read

We just wrapped up a busy week jam-packed with key economic data and big tech earnings. And we have some positive news: the market held up pretty well. May is off to a good start.

Strong earnings from META Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) gave the stock market a boost. Together, their strong performance helped the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On Friday, the rally got an extra shot in the arm from a better-than-expected jobs report—177,000 jobs added vs. 135,000 expected. That helped fuel a market-wide rally, with all the major indexes ending the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 1.46%, the S&P 500 ($SPX) up 1.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.41%.

A quick glance at the Equities panel (US Indexes tab) in the Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Russell 1000, and the Wilshire 5000 had nine consecutive up days. This is quite the reversal after trade war outcomes spooked investors. The weekly streak isn’t too shabby either, with many indexes displaying four consecutive up streaks. More indexes are now trading above their 50-day moving averages compared to a few days ago.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

After a negative statistic in the Q1 GDP growth, the strong jobs report put recessionary fears in the rearview mirror. However, this also lowers the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the May FOMC meeting. And looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to 36.4%, so it may be July before we see a rate cut. But this scenario could change between now and June.

Does this week’s price action mean the equity market is reversing? One thing is clear: The situation is much more positive than it was three weeks ago. But to get an objective view, it’s best to focus on the charts.

The Technical PoV

The daily chart of $SPX below shows that Friday’s close basically wipes out the “post Liberation Day” losses. Essentially, all the volatile action that took place in the last month was an emotional reaction to the uncertainty that investors were battling against. It was an emotional roller coaster. Now that the S&P 500 is back to the high of April 2, does it mean things have returned to business as usual?

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The index closed at around the same level it did on Liberation Day. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonally, May is a good month in the stock market, as are June and July. You can see this in the seasonality chart of the S&P 500. The data supports some of the price action we’re seeing, especially among sectors and industry groups.

Sector Snapshot

All 11 S&P sectors closed in the green on Friday. For the week, Industrials, Technology, and Financials were the leading sectors. It’s interesting to note that Friday’s leading sector, Financials, is showing signs of recovery after the April fall. The daily chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) shows the ETF trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Its relative strength index (RSI) is also rising.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The ETF broke above its 50-day moving average and its relative strength is also rising. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three, the Technology sector is technically the weakest. It’s trading below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA is below its 200-day SMA. To see strength return to the broader market, the Technology sector needs show technical strength.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMP) is at 46.52. It showed a reversal from a level just above 20 and crossed above 30, indicating a bull alert. A cross above 50 would be a favorable bull signal.

FIGURE 3. NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. After a sharp reversal from above 20, $BPCOMPQ crossed above the 30 level and is approaching the 50 level. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Keep an eye on this chart, since a break above 50 could be an early signal of improving breadth in the Nasdaq Composite.

At the Close

While the stock market’s price action seems to have regained some of its momentum, there needs to be more confirmation to suggest a trend reversal. Keep an eye on the charts of the broader indexes, sectors, and the BPIs. Look for technical indicators to confirm the rally’s strength and keep an eye on interest rate expectations.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 up 2.92% on the week, at 5686.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.0% on the week at 41,317.43; Nasdaq Composite up 3.42% on the week at 17,977.73.
$VIX down 8.86% on the week, closing at 22.64.
Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Summit Therapeutics PLC (SMMT); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Roblox Corp (RBLX)

On the Radar Next Week

Earnings season continues with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO), Ford (F), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and several others reporting.
ISM Services PMI
Fed Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference
Fed speeches from Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, and others on Friday

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Three Stocks With Post-Earnings Upside Potential

May 3, 2025 Stock 4 Mins Read

With the major averages logging a strong up week across the board, and with the Nasdaq 100 finally retesting its 200-day moving average from below, it can feel like a challenging time to take a shot at winning charts. You may ask yourself, “Do I really want to be betting on further upside after an incredibly strong April?”

When the macro environment feels less certain, I find it’s helpful to go back to tried-and-true technical analysis approaches. By identifying stocks with constructive chart patterns, we can hopefully focus our attention on names that could do well regardless of the overall market movements in the coming weeks.

With that bottom-up investing justification in mind, let’s review three recent earnings names that are showing strong technical profiles going into next week.

Visa Inc. (V)

Both Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) reported earnings, and both stocks experienced an upside follow-through after their quarterly report. Visa has been pounding out a consistent pattern of lower lows and lower highs since the end of February, but this week appears to have broken that downtrend pattern.

After Tuesday’s earnings release, Visa completed a move out of the downtrend phase by breaking trendline resistance using the major peaks from February and March. Wednesday’s up day pushed V back above the 50-day moving average, a level which had repelled a previous breakout attempt in mid-April. MA has now broken above its late March high, and a similar move next week would suggest a retest of all-time highs for Visa.

Coca Cola Co. (KO)

The Consumer Staples sector pulled back this week, and leading names in the sector, such as Coca-Cola (KO), experienced a brief drop post-earnings. KO is demonstrating a cup-and-handle pattern, although we’ve not seen the breakout that would serve to confirm a bullish outlook.

We’ve used the Annotations tool to draw a rectangle marking the resistance zone from the September 2024 peak. Subsequent peaks in March and April 2025 have retested this same range, forming the cup-and-handle pattern which often precedes a strong upthrust. The trigger for this pattern is a confirmed break above the rim of the cup, and, with this week’s pullback, investors will have to wait for this bullish confirmation.

We’ve noted the bearish momentum divergence in recent months, with the higher price highs in March and April marked by weaker RSI peaks. With this bearish divergence clearly signalling a weaker momentum profile, we would need to see a valid break above $74 on stronger RSI readings to negate the divergence and confirm an upside breakout.

CME Group Inc. (CME)

Since I discussed the exchanges with Jay Woods on my Market Misbehavior podcast back in February, I’ve been following the resilient uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. The daily chart features a series of consolidation patterns followed by upside breakouts that have led to further gains.

This is the kind of chart that I think about when someone asks, “But if you’re buying the new highs list, isn’t that too late?” The chart of CME shows that new highs often lead to even more new highs. And when a stock like CME Group keeps pulling back to an ascending 50-day moving average, I’m reminded the essence of trend-following is to remain invested in charts that continue to work.

In the immortal words of legendary technical analyst Paul Montgomery, “The most bullish thing the market can do is go up!”

I had the pleasure of heading back into the StockCharts TV studio this week to shoot the “Top Ten Stocks for May 2025” video with Grayson Roze. Visa was one of the five stocks I contributed. Check out the other nine in this week’s video!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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The Easiest Road to Supercharge Your Investing Reflexes and Reactions!

May 3, 2025 Stock 3 Mins Read

Riches are found in reactions—your reactions to changes in the markets. By this, I mean that if you spot a change in money flowing from one asset class to another, one sector to another, one industry to another, before the masses notice, you will be rewarded handsomely. My experience has been that your profits will accumulate dramatically and consistently.

A fine example of this principle in the corporate arena is the global footwear and accessories retailer, Aldo. The company has 1,600 stores in 80 countries and is immensely profitable. Their secret sauce: quick reactions to market trends. When they identify a change in fashion trends, they’re 50 percent quicker than their competition in designing, producing and delivering the hottest styles. Yes, fifty percent faster, and that’s gold to their bottom line.

This can be your secret sauce to investment profits as well. Your personal portfolio of ChartLists is the equivalent of Aldo’s design department, production department, and delivery department all bundled together. It facilitates quick reactions to current observable stock market opportunities.

In simplistic terms, your personal collection of ChartLists is like giving a runner a bicycle or giving a Jeep driver a Porsche. ROI (return on investment of your time and efforts) becomes supercharged. Your ChartLists allow you to become a “force of consistency.” They will also help you embrace one of Charlie Munger’s key investment tenets, “Try to be consistently not stupid.”

To achieve this end, I humbly suggest that you could best start with the Stock Market Mastery ChartPack.

Assembling your portfolio of ChartLists is analogous to building your custom dream house. There are sensational books of checklists that systematically ask you a comprehensive series of questions and bring up features you should consider. The end result should be a custom home you love, that fits you perfectly, and that accommodates your unique lifestyle. Think of the Stock Market Mastery ChartPack, then, as an extensive checklist—a buffet of pre-populated and organized ChartLists, from which you build your own custom collection of ChartLists that fits your investing methodology perfectly and facilitates your personal Investor Self. These 80 ChartLists are carefully structured, all pre-populated with expertly designed charts and a carefully-crafted organization to maximize your precious time and insights. Indeed, nearly all the informational breadcrumbs the market has to offer will be made clear to you and offer you a profitable trail to follow. Your reflexes and reactions just got supercharged. It is that easy.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

Author, “Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery” (Wiley, 2016)
Developer of the “Stock Market Mastery” ChartPack for StockCharts members
Presenter of the best-selling “Tensile Trading” DVD seminar
Presenter of the “How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD” seminar

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Week Ahead: While NIFTY Continues To Consolidate, Watching These Levels Crucial

May 3, 2025 Stock 4 Mins Read

In the truncated week due to one trading holiday, the markets extended their gains and closed the week on a positive note. While remaining largely within a defined range, the Nifty continued consolidating above its 200-DMA while not adopting any sustainable directional bias. While the Index continued defending its key support levels, it oscillated in the range of 535.10 points. Volatility continued moving higher; the India Vix surged by 6.41% to 18.26 on a weekly basis. While staying positive, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 307.35 points (+1.28%).

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has kept its underlying bias intact; it is currently consolidating above the 200-DMA positioned at 24050. The 50-week MA is placed at 23962. This makes the 24950-24050 a strong 200-point support zone for the Nifty for the coming weeks and the foreseeable short term. So long as the Index keeps it above this 200-point support zone, it will just consolidate and not show any major drawdowns. However, any violation of 24900 will increase the possibility of some corrective retracement. Watching Nifty’s behavior vis-à-vis the zone of 23950-24050 would be crucial over the coming days.

The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain ingrained in the market behavior; the rise in Vix shows increased hedging activity by the market participants. Monday is likely to see a stable start to the day; the levels of 24550 and 24780 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 24050 and 23900. The trading range is expected to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.92. While the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high, it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Nifty crossed above the 200-DMA a few days ago; now, it is consolidating just above this important level. It has penetrated the 50-week MA placed at 23962, and this level is now expected to act as support in the event of any corrective retracement. Importantly, the Nifty has resisted the rising trendline pattern resistance near 24600. This trendline begins at 21130 levels and joins the subsequent rising bottoms.

The coming week will require a more cautious approach as the markets not only deal with key resistance levels but also with geopolitical tensions that remain embedded in the backdrop. The investors will need to move away from the stocks that have risen over the past weeks and move to those sectors and stocks that are readying for a fresh move. While focusing more on low-beta stocks, the leverage, too, needs to be curtailed. The Index has risen over 2500 points over the past three weeks, and if it consolidates a bit, it should not surprise the market participants. A highly cautious and stock-specific approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Consumption Index are also inside the leading quadrant. The Metal, Commodities, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are also inside this quadrant, but they are giving up on their relative momentum. However, these groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty IT index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the Midcap 100, Auto, Realty, and Pharma Indices are seen improving their relative momentum while being inside the lagging quadrant.

The Nifty Media, PSE, and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to better their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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Ontario Tables Sweeping Bill to Restrict Foreign Access to Critical Minerals

May 3, 2025 Investing 4 Mins Read

Ontario has introduced legislation aimed at tightening control over the province’s mining and energy sectors by limiting foreign involvement, fast-tracking resource development and scaling back species-at-risk protections.

The Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act, 2025, also known as Bill 5, was announced at the Toronto Stock Exchange on April 17 by Premier Doug Ford and Energy and Mines Minister Stephen Lecce.

According to the government, the new bill is designed to “safeguard Ontario’s critical minerals, secure the province’s energy infrastructure, and reduce regulatory bottlenecks that hamper development.”

“With President Trump taking direct aim at our economy, it cannot be business as usual,” Ford declared during the announcement, referring to recent US moves to prioritize domestic supply chains for critical resources.

The proposed law would grant the Ontario government sweeping new powers over the mining sector.

These would include the ability to suspend or revoke mining claims, deny transfers or leases and limit access to Ontario’s Mining Lands Administration System — particularly for entities linked to “hostile foreign regimes.”

It would also allow the government to restrict foreign participation in the province’s energy sector.

“In today’s changing world, we need to be clear-eyed about the risks from those who want to exploit our resource bounty,” Lecce said in an April 25 press release that covers the legislation. “That is why it is essential that Ontario is protecting our critical minerals and energy sector from getting into the wrong hands.”

Kevin Holland, member of provincial parliament for Thunder Bay-Atikokan, added that the measures are especially significant for Northern Ontario, where the economy is deeply tied to resource extraction.

“Ontario is taking important actions to protect our mining and energy assets during this volatile time,” he said.

Rolling back environmental protections

According to the provincial government, the legislation is partially a response to concerns raised in a 2021 national security report in which Canada’s natural resources are identified as a strategic vulnerability.

However, the proposed legislation has sparked sharp criticism from environmental advocates who warn that Bill 5 undermines Ontario’s Endangered Species Act. It would be replaced with a much narrower Species Conservation Act that redefines what constitutes a species’ habitat.

Under current law, a habitat includes all areas a species needs to live, migrate and reproduce. The new definition reduces this to “a dwelling place, such as a den, nest or other similar place,” plus the immediate surrounding area.

Critics argue that this change all but guarantees habitat loss for vulnerable species.

“The definition of habitat is so narrow that what it means is less habitat than the species has now,” Laura Bowman, a lawyer with the environmental law charity Ecojustice, told CBC. “And less habitat than the species has now, for a species already in decline, virtually ensures extirpation or extinction,” she added

The bill would also eliminate the requirement for recovery strategies once a species is declared at risk — a key mechanism under the current law that sets out steps to restore populations to sustainable levels.

The legislation is part of Ontario’s push to accelerate development in the Ring of Fire, a mineral-rich region in the province’s far north. The Ford government has long touted the area’s potential to supply key inputs like nickel, lithium and chromite for electric vehicles and clean technologies. According to the government, Bill 5 will “cut red tape and streamline approvals” to jumpstart projects that are currently mired in lengthy environmental and consultation processes — often involving Indigenous communities whose territories overlap with planned developments.

Despite the growing need for secure critical minerals supply chains, the decision to pair national security rhetoric with the rollback of environmental protections is likely to ignite political and legal challenges in the months ahead.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Deep-Sea Crisis: Can the ISA Regain Control of the Deep Ocean?

May 3, 2025 Investing 6 Mins Read

The world’s oceans are increasingly becoming an important new frontier in the geopolitical and economic race for critical minerals, with countries fast-tracking plans for deep-sea mining.

Meanwhile, the global body tasked with regulating such activities is struggling to keep pace.

As sovereign states ramp up efforts to access seabed resources crucial for clean energy and defense technologies, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) finds itself sidelined — raising alarms among environmentalists and nations alike.

Stoking these tensions, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order earlier this month with the aim of expediting deep-sea mineral extraction in both national and international waters.

The directive, which calls for faster permitting and exploration, bypasses multilateral negotiations at the ISA and uses a 1980 domestic statute — the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act — to justify the unilateral action.

The order “establishes the US as a global leader in seabed mineral exploration and development both within and beyond national jurisdiction,’ signaling Washington’s intent to secure independence from Chinese mineral supply chains.

But the move has drawn fierce criticism from multiple fronts.

“The US authorization … violates international law and harms the overall interests of the international community,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun. Such sentiments echo concerns that unilateral actions could unravel decades of work toward collective seabed governance under the United Nations (UN) Convention on the Law of the Sea.

At the heart of the dispute lies the ISA, the UN agency responsible for regulating mining in international waters.

Though it has issued over 30 exploratory permits, it has yet to finalize rules for commercial extraction. That regulatory vacuum has encouraged countries to approach the issue alone and in accordance with their own different agendas.

Norway reverses course on deep-sea mining

In January 2024, Norway became the first country to approve commercial-scale deep-sea mining within its own exclusive economic zone, greenlighting exploration across 280,000 square kilometers — an area larger than the UK.

The move, passed through parliament despite strong domestic and international opposition, is part of the country’s bid to secure metals like cobalt, scandium and lithium for green technologies.

“We will have a relatively long period of exploration and mapping activity to close the knowledge gap on the environmental impact,” Walter Sognnes, co-founder of Loke Marine Minerals, a Norwegian company focused on deep-sea exploration, told the BBC in an interview at the time the news was announced

However, environmentalists argued that the plan undermined Norway’s own standards.

“The Norwegian government always highlighted that they want to implement the highest environmental standards,” said Martin Webeler of the Environmental Justice Foundation.

“That is hypocritical whilst you are throwing away all the scientific advice.”

The Norway Institute of Marine Research also criticized the government’s decision, saying the existing environmental impact assessment was based on limited data and not representative of the vast areas opened for mining. It called for an additional five to 10 years of research before proceeding.

Against that backdrop, Norway reversed course, suspending its deep-sea mining plans at the end of 2024 following mounting political and environmental pressure.

The first licensing round, originally set for 2025, was blocked after the Socialist Left Party threatened to withhold support for the government’s budget unless the initiative was halted.

India eyes Clarion-Clipperton zone, Pacific Islands at crossroads

For its part, India has announced plans to ramp up its presence in the Pacific’s Clarion-Clipperton zone, one of the world’s most mineral-rich deep-sea regions. Although the ISA has already granted India two exploration contracts, the country has opted to hold off on operations as regulations remain in flux.

M. Ravichandran, secretary of the country’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the country is seeking to apply to the UN-backed ISA next year to focus on exploring the zone.

Meanwhile, the resource-rich Pacific Islands are emerging as battlegrounds in this high-stakes race.

Kiribati, a small island nation with jurisdiction over 75,000 square kilometers of prospective seabed, is reportedly in talks with China after a previous deal with Canada’s The Metals Company (NASDAQ:TMC) collapsed late last year.

In a statement dated March 17, the Kiribati government called discussions with Chinese ambassador Zhou Limin “an exciting opportunity” to explore its deep-sea resources.

But critics say such moves by smaller nations are often driven by economic desperation and can lead to exploitative outcomes. This tension is familiar in Papua New Guinea, where the failure of the Nautilus Minerals project left environmental damage and financial losses in its wake.

Some Pacific nations are now calling for a global moratorium on seabed mining, citing concerns about the unknown risks to ecosystems and the climate.

Patchwork governance, fragmented oversight

The race toward seabed mining is exposing a critical flaw in global governance: fragmentation. The ISA, which was supposed to provide a unified framework, is losing relevance as more countries chart independent courses.

“The harm caused by deep-sea mining isn’t restricted to the ocean floor: it will impact the entire water column, top to bottom,” Jeff Watters, vice president for external affairs at the Ocean Conservancy, told the Guardian.

A study by the Natural History Museum and the UK’s National Oceanography Center analyzing a 1970s test site concludes that some sediment dwellers were able to recover, but larger animals dependent on polymetallic nodules did not return — likely because the nodules, which take millions of years to form, were destroyed.

Despite these warnings, the Metals Company continues to push forward. It has said it plans to mine by the year’s end, pending US government approval, as CEO Gerard Barron remains unfazed by the backlash.

“Here there’s zero flora,” Barron told the BBC in a January 2024 interview. “If we measure the amount of fauna… in the form of biomass, there is around 10g per square metre. That compares with more than 30kg of biomass where the world is pushing more nickel extraction, which is our equatorial rainforests.”

Beyond environmental concerns, the deep-sea mining surge is reshaping geopolitical dynamics. China, which dominates global production and processing of rare earths, has long used its position as leverage in trade disputes. In response to US tariffs, Beijing recently introduced new export controls on rare earths — further intensifying the mineral arms race.

Trump’s executive order makes clear that seabed mining is now viewed as a national security imperative.

“It’s not just drill, baby, drill. It’s mine, baby, mine,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum at a recent conference. “We will literally be at the mercy of others that are controlling our supply chains,” he warned.

But this approach risks setting a dangerous precedent. If powerful nations begin issuing their own licenses outside multilateral systems, others are likely to follow suit. The result could be a patchwork of conflicting claims and reduced protections, particularly for vulnerable maritime nations.

With the ISA still developing a mining code and more countries rejecting its pace, the world faces a dilemma: how to balance the urgent demand for critical minerals with the equally pressing need to preserve fragile marine ecosystems.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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John Rubino: Gold on “Epic Run” as Chaos Unfolds, What About Silver?

May 3, 2025 Investing 1 Min Read

John Rubino, who writes a newsletter on Substack, explains the factors behind gold’s ‘epic run,’ pointing to underlying elements like Basel III and BRICS demand, as well as current events.

He believes gold has the wind at its back, although silver might be the better buy right now.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Finlay Minerals Receives TSX Venture Exchange Approval for PIL Earn-In Agreement

May 3, 2025 Investing 9 Mins Read

finlay minerals ltd. (TSXV: FYL) (OTCQB: FYMNF) (‘Finlay’ or the ‘Company’) is pleased to announce the receipt of TSX Venture Exchange (the ‘ Exchange ‘) conditional acceptance for its previously announced earn-in agreement (the ‘ PIL Earn-In Agreement ‘) with Freeport-McMoRan Mineral Properties Canada Inc. (‘ Freeport ‘), a wholly owned subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) relating to its PIL property (‘ PIL Property ‘). The PIL Property consists of 50 mineral claims in the Toodoggone District of northern British Columbia . The Company also entered into an earn-in agreement (the ‘ ATTY Earn-In Agreement ‘) with Freeport relating to its ATTY property (the ‘ ATTY Property ‘, together with the PIL Property, the ‘ Properties ‘). The ATTY Earn-In Agreement is not subject to Exchange approval, as it qualifies as an ‘Exempt Transaction’ under Exchange Policy 5.3 Acquisitions and Dispositions of Non-Cash Assets . The PIL and ATTY earn-in agreements are arm’s length transactions, and no finder’s fees are payable in connection with either earn-in agreement.

Pursuant to the PIL Earn-In Agreement, Freeport may acquire an 80% interest in the PIL Property by making aggregate cash payments of CAD $3,000,000 to Finlay and completing an aggregate of $25,000,000 of exploration expenditures on the PIL Property over a 6-year period. Pursuant to the ATTY Earn-In Agreement, Freeport may acquire an 80% interest in the ATTY Property by making aggregate cash payments of CAD $1,100,000 to Finlay and completing an aggregate of $10,000,000 of exploration expenditures on the ATTY Property over a 6-year period. The earn-in in respect of each of the Properties may be exercised separately, and the full details of the exercise requirements for each earn-in are set out in the table below. Following the completion of the earn-in on either of the Properties, Freeport and Finlay will respectively hold interests of 80% and 20% in such Property, and a joint venture company will be formed for further exploration and development. In the event that a party does not fund their portion of further joint venture programs, their interests in the joint venture company will dilute. Any party that dilutes to below a 10% interest in the joint venture company will exchange its joint venture company interest for a net smelter returns (‘ NSR ‘) royalty of 1% on the applicable Property, which is subject to a 0.5% buyback for USD $2,000,000 .

Table 1 . Staged cash and expenditure terms for the PIL and ATTY earn-in agreements.

	PIL		ATTY
	Cash	Work	Cash	Work
Year 1	$ 550,000	$ 750,000	$ 150,000	$ 500,000
Year 2	$ 350,000	$ 1,000,000	$ 100,000	$ 1,000,000
Year 3	$ 375,000	$ 3,000,000	$ 125,000	$ 1,500,000
Year 4	$ 400,000	$ 5,250,000	$ 150,000	$ 2,000,000
Year 5	$ 500,000	$ 5,500,000	$ 275,000	$ 2,000,000
Year 6	$ 825,000	$ 9,500,000	$ 300,000	$ 3,000,000
Total (CAD)	$3,000,000	$25,000,000	$1,100,000	$10,000,000

These earn-in requirements can be accelerated by Freeport at its discretion. During the earn-in period, Finlay will be the operator on the Properties, collecting an operator’s fee, under the direction of a joint technical committee that will approve work programs and budgets during the earn-in period.

The PIL & ATTY Properties are each subject to a 3.0% NSR royalty held by Electrum Resource Corporation (‘ Electrum ‘), a private company, the outstanding voting shares of which are held by Company directors John A. Barakso and Ilona B. Lindsay . The Company has a current right to buy back ½ of the royalty (1.5%) on each property for an aggregate payment of $2,000,000 and $1,500,000 respectively. Finlay and Electrum have entered into amended and restated royalty agreements (the ‘ A&R Royalty Agreements ‘) relating to each of the PIL and ATTY Properties, pursuant to which upon and subject to the exercise of the earn-in in respect of each Property by Freeport , the buy-back right will be amended to provide for a 2.0% royalty buy-back for each Property, in consideration for an increased buy-back payment that will be sole-funded by Freeport without joint venture dilution to Finlay, and will be divided equally between Finlay and Electrum. For the PIL Property, the increased buy-back will be:

For the ATTY Property, the increased buy-back will be:

1. USD$5,000,000 if the buy-back is exercised on or before the date that is 60 days following the report of an initial Pre-Feasibility Study on the ATTY Property;
2. USD$7,500,000 if the buy-back is exercised on or before the date that is 60 days following the report date of an initial Feasibility Study on the ATTY Property; or
3. USD$10,000,0000 if the buy-back is exercised on or after commercial production.

Under the A&R Royalty Agreements, Finlay and Electrum have also agreed, subject to the exercise of the applicable Freeport earn-in, to extinguish share issuance obligations of 1,000,000 common shares and 500,000 common shares owing to Electrum prior to or on a production decision on the PIL and ATTY Properties respectively.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is a leading international metals company focused on copper, with major operations in the Americas and Indonesia and significant reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum.

About the PIL Property:

The 100% owned PIL Property covers 13,374 hectares of highly prospective ground in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The core PIL claims were staked over 30 years ago by the founders of the Company. Over the decades, numerous Cu-Au-Mo porphyry and porphyry-related Au-Ag epithermal targets have been identified at PIL. The identified targets are central to a broader 70 km porphyry corridor trend, which includes: Centerra Gold’s past producing Kemess South Cu-Au porphyry mine and Kemess Underground Cu-Au-Ag porphyry resource, Thesis Gold’s Lawyers-Ranch Au-Ag epithermal resource, and the newly discovered Amarc Resources and Freeport AuRORA Cu-Au-Ag porphyry. Readers are cautioned that mineralization on the foregoing regional properties is not necessarily indicative of mineralization on the PIL Property. The PIL Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season.

About the ATTY Property:

The 100% owned ATTY Property covers 3,875 hectares in the prolific Toodoggone mining district of north-central British Columbia. The ATTY Property adjoins Centerra Gold’s Kemess Project and Amarc Resources and Freeport’s JOY property. Several epithermal-style Ag ± Au ± Cu ± base-metal veins are exposed on the ATTY Property, and geochemical and geophysical work have outlined at least two promising porphyry targets, including the drill-ready KEM Target. The ATTY Property is road accessible and permitted for the 2025 season.

Qualified Person:

Wade Barnes , P. Geo. and Vice President, Exploration for Finlay and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical content of this news release.

About finlay minerals ltd.

Finlay is a TSXV company focused on exploration for base and precious metal deposits with five 100% owned properties in northern British Columbia : the PIL and ATTY properties in the Toodoggone, the Silver Hope Cu-Ag Property (21,322 ha) and the SAY Cu-Ag Property (26,202 ha) and JJB Property (15,423 ha) in the Bear Lake Corridor of BC.

Finlay Minerals is advancing the ATTY, PIL, JJB, SAY and Silver Hope Properties that host copper-gold porphyry and gold-silver epithermal targets within different porphyry districts of northern and central BC. Each property is located in areas of recent development and porphyry discoveries with the advantage of hosting the potential for new discoveries.

Finlay trades under the symbol ‘FYL’ on the TSXV and under the symbol ‘FYMNF’ on the OTCQB. For further information and details, please visit the Company’s website at www.finlayminerals.com

On behalf of the Board of Directors,

Robert F. Brown
President, CEO & Director

Neither the TSXV nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Information: This news release includes certain ‘forward-looking information’ and ‘forward-looking statements’ (collectively, ‘forward-looking statements’) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements in this news release that address events or developments that we expect to occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, although not always, identified by words such as ‘expect’, ‘plan’, ‘anticipate’, ‘project’, ‘target’, ‘potential’, ‘schedule’, ‘forecast’, ‘budget’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’ or ‘believe’ and similar expressions or their negative connotations, or that events or conditions ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘should’ or ‘might’ occur. All such forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made. Forward-looking statements in this news release include statements regarding, among others, the exploration plans for the Properties and the potential exercise of Freeport’s option to acquire an interest in the Properties. Although Finlay believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploration successes, and continued availability of capital and financing and general economic, market or business conditions. These forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions including, among other things, assumptions regarding general business and economic conditions, the timing and receipt of regulatory and governmental approvals, the ability of Finlay and other parties to satisfy stock exchange and other regulatory requirements in a timely manner, the availability of financing for Finlay’s proposed transactions and programs on reasonable terms, and the ability of third-party service providers to deliver services in a timely manner. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, and accordingly undue reliance should not be put on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Finlay does not assume any obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

SOURCE finlay minerals ltd.

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Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Lion Rock Jumps 60 Percent

May 3, 2025 Investing 11 Mins Read

The Liberal Party of Canada and Prime Minister Mark Carney will form a minority government following their victory in Canada’s national election on Monday (April 28). The Liberals won 168 seats, just shy of the 172 required to form a majority, meaning the Liberal government will have to work with the Bloc Québécois or the NDP, which won 23 and 7 seats, respectively.

The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, won 144 seats. While the CPC was originally expected to win the election, the trade war and sovereignty threats from new US President Donald Trump turned the tide in favor of Carney, who took a firmer stance against Trump. Other election issues included the high cost of living, housing, immigration and crime.

Both parties came into the election with visions for Canada’s economy, which included energy and infrastructure corridors, a commitment to energy production and a focus on resource nationalism.

Statistics Canada released February’s gross domestic product by industry figures on Wednesday (April 30). According to the data, the resource sector’s January gains were largely erased by contractions in February. Oil and gas extraction slipped by 2.8 percent, while mining and quarrying contracted by 2.6 percent during the month. Metal ore mining posted its second month of declines, falling 2.5 percent. On the other hand, non-metallic mineral mining climbed by 2.7 percent, including a 3.5 percent rise in potash mining.

South of the Border, The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April employment situation summary on Friday (May 2). In the report, the agency said that 177,000 new nonfarm jobs were added to the economy in April, which exceeded analysts’ expectations of 133,000 jobs.

The biggest gains came in the healthcare sector, which added 51,000 workers, followed by transportation and warehousing, where 29,000 people found new employment.

Overall, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 percent, and the participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent.

However, there were some caveats, most notably, downward revisions of 15,000 fewer jobs in February and 43,000 jobs in March than initially reported.. Long-term unemployment also ticked up by 179,000 to 1.67 million in April, the highest since March 2022.

While the number showed strength in the job market, many analysts expect these gains to be temporary, as the effects of US tariffs have yet to be felt in the economy.

The US government also announced on Wednesday that it signed a critical minerals deal with Ukraine. Under the terms of the agreement, the US will provide funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction in exchange for preferential access to the country’s natural resources, including rare earth minerals, which are critical to tech and military development and supply chains.

Additionally, the Trump administration announced it added 10 new projects to be fast-tracked to its federal permitting dashboard on Friday. The projects include the NorthMet copper and nickel project in Minnesota, which is a 50/50 joint venture between Teck (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), as well as Sibanye Stillwater’s (NYSE:SBSW) Stillwater platinum and palladium project in Montana.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, major indexes posted gains by the week’s close. The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 1.32 percent during the week to close at 25,031.51 on Friday, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) moved up 0.01 percent to 656.40 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) climbed 2.52 percent to 122.75.

US equity markets also posted gains by close on Friday, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) increasing 2.85 percent to close at 5,686.66, the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) gaining 3.45 percent to 20,102.61 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rising 2.8 percent to 41,317.44.

The gold price fell from recent highs, closing out Friday at US$3,233.98, down 2.56 percent over the week. The silver price was also down, shedding 3.21 percent during the period to US$32.03.

In base metals, the COMEX copper price fell 4.29 percent over the week to US$4.69 per pound. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) was down 3.17 percent to close at 520.19.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 3:30 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

1. Lion Rock Resources (TSXV:ROAR)

Weekly gain: 60 percent
Market cap: C$20.51 million
Share price: C$0.32

Lion Rock Resources is a gold and critical mineral exploration company focused on advancing its Volney gold-lithium-tin project in South Dakota, United States.

The property is situated on 142 hectares of private land with surface and mineral rights in place. The site hosts historic gold and tin mining operations dating back to the 1920s. Additionally, the site contains the Giant Volney pegmatite body, from which 15 grab samples graded an average of 4.4 percent lithium oxide, with the highest grading 5.4 percent.

The most recent news from the project came on Thursday (May 1) when Lion Rock announced that it had started its 2025 exploration program, including a high-resolution magnetic survey, mapping and sampling. The company said that the program will target high-grade lithium, gold and tin, and results will be used to refine drill targets and expand known mineralized zones.

The company also released its year-end 2024 financial report on Tuesday (April 29).

2. Foremost Clean Energy (CSE:FAT)

Weekly gain: 42.86 percent
Market cap: C$14.27 million
Share price: C$1.30

Foremost Clean Energy is a uranium exploration company working to advance projects in the Athabasca Basin in Northern Saskatchewan, Canada.

In 2025, its primary focus has been its Hatchet Lake property, part of its Eastern Athabasca projects. The site consists of nine mineral claims within two blocks covering an area of 10,2012 hectares and has seen exploration dating back to the 1960s.

Foremost announced in October 2024 that it had completed the first phase of an option agreement with Denison Mines (TSX:DML,NYSEAMERICAN:DNN) to acquire a 20 percent stake in 10 uranium properties, including Hatchet Lake, in exchange for 1.37 million common shares.

Under the terms of the agreement, Foremost can earn up to a 70 percent stake in the properties in exchange for meeting certain milestones within 36 months.

This Thursday, Foremost announced a new uranium discovery at Hatchet Lake from initial results of the company’s ongoing inaugural drill program.

In the announcement, the company said the discovery included multiple intervals of mineralization, highlighting one grading 0.22 percent equivalent U3O8 over 0.9 meters, including an intersection of 0.5 percent over 0.1 meters.

3. Baru Gold (TSXV:BARU)

Weekly gain: 42.86 percent
Market cap: C$13.53 million
Share price: C$0.05

Baru Gold is a development company working to advance its Sangihe gold project in Indonesia.

The company holds a 70 percent stake in the 42,000 hectare project, with the remaining 30 percent interest held by three Indonesia-based companies.

Baru Gold is progressing towards approval of its production operations plan, which was redesigned due to the significant macroeconomic shift and increase in the gold price since its last mineral resource estimate in May 2017.

On February 14, the company published a technical report with an updated mineral resource estimate. The mineral resource estimate demonstrated an indicated resource of 114,000 ounces of gold and 1.93 million ounces of silver from 3.15 million metric tons of ore with grades of 1.12 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold and 19.4 g/t silver. The project also hosts an inferred resource of 91,000 ounces of gold and 1.08 million ounces of silver from 2.3 million metric tons of ore with grades of 1.22 g/t gold and 14.5 g/t silver.

The update marks a significant step towards government approval for production operations status, with the only remaining requirement being the payment of taxes.

The most recent news came on April 2 when the company announced the closing of the first tranche of a private placement for C$336,321.88. Funding raised through the placement will be used in part for payment of land use taxes on the Sangihe property.

4. Taranis Resources (TSXV:TRO)

Weekly gain: 42.5 percent
Market cap: C$21.07 million
Share price: C$0.285

Taranis Resources is a copper explorer focused on advancing work at its Thor project in Southeast British Columbia, Canada.

The site has seen previous mining dating back to the early 1900s and hosts at least seven different epithermal zones. In a February mineral resource estimate update, the company reported an indicated resource of 1.14 million metric tons of ore containing 27,400 ounces of gold, 5.58 million ounces of silver, 3.1 million pounds of copper, 47.8 million pounds of lead and 77.9 million pounds of zinc.

The most recent news from the Thor project came on April 9, when Taranis provided an update on its 2024 deep drilling program. The company finalized an alteration study of the drill holes, which encountered anomalous gold, zinc and arsenic, and plans to use the results to improve targeting and lower costs for its 2025 drilling program.

5. Black Iron (TSX:BKI)

Weekly gain: 41.18 percent
Market cap: C$38.02 million
Share price: C$0.12

Black Iron is an exploration and development company working to advance its Shymanivske iron project in Ukraine.

The 300 hectare property is located approximately 330 kilometers south-east of the capital of Kiev and is situated within the well-known iron ore mining district of KrivBass.

According to a March 2020 preliminary economic assessment, project economics demonstrated an after-tax net present value of US$1.44 billion at a discount rate of 10 percent with an internal rate of return of 34.4 percent and a payback period of 3.3 years.

The included mineral resource estimate reported a measured and indicated resource of 645.8 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 31.6 percent total iron and 18.8 percent magnetic iron.

Although Black Iron did not release any news this week, the company’s share price gained alongside news of the US and Ukraine reaching a critical minerals agreement.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many mining companies are listed on the TSX and TSXV?

As of February 2025, there were 1,572 companies listed on the TSXV, 905 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,859 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.

Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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