Top 5 Remains Unchanged

The latest sector rotation analysis reveals a market that’s still playing defense. Despite some minor shuffling in the lower ranks, the top five sectors remain unchanged this week—a sign that the current defensive positioning is settling into a more stable pattern.

Consumer staples is holding its ground at the number one spot, followed by utilities, financials, communication services, and health care. This lineup underscores the market’s continued preference for defensive plays.

1. (1) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
3. (3) Financials – (XLF)
4. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)
5. (5) Healthcare – (XLV)
6. (6) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
7. (8) Industrials – (XLI)*
8. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
9. (10) Materials – (XLB)*
10. (7) Energy – (XLE)*
11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a clear picture of the defensive sectors’ strength. Consumer staples and utilities are continuing to move further into the leading quadrant, solidifying their dominant positions. Healthcare, while ranked fifth, is located within the leading quadrant, but has lost some relative momentum over the past two weeks — something to keep an eye on.

Interestingly, financials and communication services, ranked third and fourth respectively, are showing signs of momentum loss, despite maintaining elevated RS ratio levels. Communication services have actually crossed into the weakening quadrant this week. At current RS-Ratio levels, this is not too concerning yet.

Daily RRG: Staples and Utilities Slightly Losing Relative Momentum

Zooming in on the daily RRG provides some nuanced insights. Staples and utilities, while still disconnected from other sectors at high RS ratio levels, have lost some relative momentum in the last week. Utilities have dipped into the weakening quadrant on this timeframe, but, given its high relative strength (RS) ratio, it’s not a major concern, at least not yet.

Financials and health care are also in the weakening quadrant on the daily RRG, but they’re flirting with the 100 level on the RS ratio scale. We haven’t seen a crossover yet, but it’s definitely a situation to be aware of.

One bright spot: communication services, despite being in the lagging quadrant, is showing signs of rolling back up. This aligns with its positive heading on the weekly RRG, suggesting potential improvement ahead.

Consumer Staples (XLP)

XLP is flexing its muscles, pushing against overhead resistance—a show of strength, given the S&P 500’s weakness. A break above the 83 area could unlock more upside potential, further cementing Staples’ defensive appeal. The relative strength line is attempting to break above horizontal resistance, dragging both RRG lines higher and pushing XLP deeper into the leading quadrant.

Utilities (XLU)

Utilities are showing a similar pattern to staples, though not quite as robust. XLU has retreated into its trading range, between roughly 73 and 80, currently sitting in the mid-range. Given the broader market weakness, this is still a positive setup for utilities. The sector is attempting to break above its relative resistance, which is propelling the RRG lines above 100 and deeper into the leading quadrant.

Financials (XLF)

Financials took a hit but found support around 42, bouncing strongly back towards the 47-47.50 resistance area. This sets up a limited upside potential, but the downside seems well-protected for now. The raw relative strength uptrend remains intact, keeping XLF in the leading quadrant, despite some leveling off of the RRG lines.

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC has been the biggest loser among the top sectors, breaking support around 95 and declining rapidly to support near 82.50. We’re currently seeing a bounce off that support. Relative strength is maintaining its rising channel, keeping the RS ratio well above 100. However, the momentum line has dipped below 100, temporarily pushing XLC into the weakening quadrant. The uptrend in relative strength is still in play, though — something to watch closely.

Health Care (XLV)

Healthcare is struggling, grappling with support between $132.50 and $135. A potential head-and-shoulders top formation is developing — a pattern we’re seeing in several sectors, to be honest. XLV is clearly the weakest of the top five, explaining its fifth-place ranking. Relative strength is struggling to maintain its upward trajectory. While both RRG lines remain above 100, we need to see a clear break in relative strength and the formation of an uptrend in order for healthcare to maintain its top-five status.

RRG Portfolio Performance

An update on our RRG portfolio of top five sectors: As of Friday’s close, the portfolio is down 10.2% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500’s (using SPY as the benchmark) decline of 9.96%. This has resulted in a slight underperformance of 0.2%. However, it’s worth noting that we’re catching up to the benchmark after last week’s more significant underperformance — we’re on the rise again.

#StayAlert –Julius

In this video, as earnings season heats up, Mary Ellen reviews current stock market trends, highlighting top-performing stocks during past bear markets that are showing strength again today. She also shares a proven market timing system that’s signaled every stock market bottom, helping investors stay ahead of major turning points.

This video originally premiered April 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The market continued to slide lower today as the bear market continues to put downside pressure on stocks in general. Bonds and Yields are at an inflection point as more buyers enter the Bond market which is driving treasury yields higher. What is the long-term outlook for Bonds? Carl gives you his thoughts.

First, Carl covered the market as a whole before discussing his long-term outlook for Bonds and Yields. Not only did he cover the SPY and its indicators, he looked at the rally in Bitcoin and the vertical rally for Gold among others. Crude Oil is pulling back again and the Dollar continues to lose strength.

After covering the market, he discusses his thoughts on Bonds. This was followed by questions.

Erin jumped in to cover sector rotation. There are clear problems and clear strength visible among the sectors, but ultimately all are struggling including defensive sectors Utilities and Real Estate. She zeroed in on the Energy sector and Consumer Staples sector “under the hood”.

Finally the pair finished by taking viewer symbol requests.

01:01 DP Signal Tables

05:03 Market Overview

13:28 Bond Discussion

17:08 Magnificent Seven

22:56 Questions

30:07 Sector Rotation

40:04 Symbol Requests

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Bear Market Rules

In this video, market sentiment, investor psychology, and stock market trends take center stage as David Keller, CMT, shares three powerful sentiment indicators that he tracks every week. He explains how the values are derived, what the current readings say about the market environment in April 2025, and how these levels compare to past bull markets and bear markets. If you’re looking for a sentiment playbook to navigate these markets, this analysis will give you the edge.

This video originally premiered on April 21, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) remains one of the world’s most volatile and discussed stocks, with Elon Musk’s political bent having made it a lightning rod of discussion. Sales continue to fall – especially in Europe – and Musk’s personal focus seems to be on many other areas. It will be interesting to see how the numbers look and what if any guidance may be given when Tesla reports on Tuesday afternoon.

Technically, shares have made a full reversal since their post-election rally and now sit poised to move again. This is not an ideal-looking chart for the bulls, as key levels of support have been breached, the near-term trend is lower, and the long-term trend is a volatile mess.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF TESLA STOCK PRICE.

Currently, there’s a descending triangle in a near-term downtrend, with a floor around $215. It has been tested twice and held, but each rally continues to be met with strong resistance. There is more overhead resistance and work to be done to get shares on the right ascending track.

During a rally, there are three levels where sellers should take charge. The first level coincides with the current triangular downtrend line and old support, now resistance, which goes back to its pre-election breakout around $270. Then there is also the 200-day moving average just over $290. Lastly, there is the downtrend from the recent highs at the $300 level.

Momentum favors the bears on any rally, and weakness could plunge the stock towards its August 2024 lows around $180. It is not an ideal risk/reward set-up going into the numbers. Both key momentum indicators — relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) — appear to be stalling, which makes this stock one to avoid despite all the news it may cause later this week.

Service Now (NOW)

ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) shares have been decimated since reporting earnings last January. The software company, the fourth-largest company in the iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV), looks to rebound when it reports earnings after the close on April 23.

Technically, recent price action is showing signs of a bottom, and the risk/reward set-up is getting clear.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SERVICE NOW.

The sell-off reached a crescendo after “Liberation Day” and snapped back to levels that set up a plan of attack as we go into this week’s earnings. Shares reached extreme oversold conditions on both the MACD and RSI readings before hitting recent lows. Price action on the biggest move lower showed a divergence in both indicators, and didn’t confirm that last move down.

There are two bullish divergences after a severe drawdown, which is a positive. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the beginning of the bull market to its recent peak also show a positive development. The sell-off found support right at the 61.8% “golden ratio” level, which coincided with prior support going back to the lows of 2024.

Momentum is turning, a floor seems to be apparent, and we have something to reverse – all good signs for a bull case. While the moves are rather wide, targets to the downside look to be set just above $675.

To the upside, a simple mean reversion takes shares back to their declining 50-day moving average just above $865. If it breaks above there, watch for a test of the 200-day moving average, which is another $60 higher.

If you were to believe that a solid number is coming on Wednesday afternoon, as it has in all but one quarter going back to 2018 (last quarter they missed), then it may be a good entry point to capture the upside. However, as it sits in the middle of a range, it’s more of a coin flip here. Currently, it looks as though we have a sell-off that should be bought and a rally that should be faded.

One thing we do know is that it will be interesting to see if the stock can try to recapture its longer-term uptrend in a rather tricky tape.

Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL)

Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to make headlines as it deals with ongoing litigation in Washington and competition from search engines like ChatGPT. Shares have been under pressure all year and are at a fork in the road coming into their Thursday numbers.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF GOOGL STOCK.

We kept this weekly chart as simple as possible to show this “fork-in-the-road” scenario. At the end of 2024, the chart completed a beautiful saucer bottom pattern and broke out. It almost achieved its upside targets around $220, but fell just short.

Then it broke down.

After its initial breakout, GOOGL rallied and paused. Price faded back to test old resistance after its initial leg higher. That level of old resistance became support, in textbook fashion. Shares rallied from there to make new all-time highs; then, they failed again.

Now, GOOGL sits at a key level that was tested once last week and held. Shares never closed below the key support area around $150. That sets traders up with a risk/reward scenario that seems favorable, for now. Anyone buying the stock here has two levels from which to cut their losses if price were to break down from here.

Watch the recent intraday lows at $140.50 and then the rising 200-week moving average at $136. If it closes below there, you should exit the stock and wait for a better entry point. 

To the upside, there is smooth sailing to the 50-week moving average just above $172. It may take a strong beat and guide in this macro environment to push much higher, but the lines are set as we head into this busy week of earnings.