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Unveiling Market Trends: What’s Triggering a Midweek Bearish Shift?

Stock 4 Mins Read

Wednesday’s stock market price action revealed a caution sign, and with it, any hope that rose from Monday’s price action just got buried. The Tech sector sold off, with the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) falling over 2%.

The chart of $COMPQ indicated hesitation. Of the three broader indexes, it was the one that didn’t cross above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and its breadth wasn’t showing signs of expanding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) still holds on to its position above its 200-day SMA and 21-day EMA.

The S&P 500 is a concerning chart. The index crossed above its 200-day SMA on Monday; then, on Tuesday, there was a doji candlestick indicating indecision among investors. Then comes Wednesday, and we see a wide-range down day that closed well below the midpoint of Monday’s trading range. This satisfied the conditions for an evening doji star, which is a bearish reversal pattern. In addition, the index wasn’t able to close above its January low. This doesn’t leave a warm, fuzzy feeling.

FIGURE 1. BEARISH REVERSAL IN THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART? The evening doji star is an indication of a bearish reversal. Will this hold or will the pattern fail? It’s something to watch for as tariff concerns remain front and center. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Consumer Discretionary Sells Off

The back and forth with tariffs was the main cause of Wednesday’s selloff. The news of President Trump prepping to sign an auto tariff statement after the market closes elevated investor uncertainty. The automobile industry was the worst performer in the Consumer Discretionary sector (see MarketCarpet below).

FIGURE 2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR’S MARKETCARPET. The automobile industry was the worst hit in this sector. After the tariff announcement on Wednesday, the sector could see further selling. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), the largest weighted stock in the Automobile sub-industry, fell 5.58%. There were many other auto manufacturers such as Toyota Motor (TM), Ferrari (RACE), General Motors (GM), and Honda Motor Co. (HMC), who experienced a similar fate.

Mr. Market didn’t know the tariff details before the close, so the selloff was in anticipation of 25% tariffs being implemented. At around 5:30 pm EDT, President Trump announced the implementation of 25% tariffs on autos manufactured outside of the U.S. Shares of Ford Motor Co. (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) were trading lower after Wednesday’s close. Don’t be surprised if Thursday is a volatile trading day.

Semis Tumble

Things weren’t so rosy in AI land, either. Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) scaled back on its data center buildouts, which didn’t help tech stocks. The Technology sector was the worst-performing S&P sector on Wednesday.

The Technology sector MarketCarpet below gives a good picture of the magnitude of the selloff. Semiconductors were the worst hit, with NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) seeing significant declines.

FIGURE 3. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR MARKETCARPET. The Technology sector was the hardest hit on Wednesday. As you can see, it was a sea of red with the large-cap weighted stocks seeing significant selloffs. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What a difference a day makes. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is inching higher after its slide since March 11. It’s back above 18 indicating that fear is back on the table.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

The rest of this week could be volatile. Keep your eyes on the macro picture. Treasury yields held on, but could rise further on Wednesday. As a result, the U.S. dollar could strengthen against the Japanese yen. If inflation expectations and concerns about economic growth rise, precious metals could shine.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Stock

Performance Profile Paints Different Pictures for Commodity and Equity ETFs

Stock 2 Mins Read

The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture for the stock market. This report will show how to interpret the performance profile and separate the leaders from the laggards using a ChartList.

The following images come from the summary view of the TrendInvestorPro core ETF ChartList, which has 72 ETFs covering equities, commodities, bonds and crypto. The period setting is year-to-date (YTD) with the first example sorted by the year-to-date percentage change (% CHG) to see the leaders at the top. I added the SMA(200) column to see how far above/below each ETF is from its 200-day SMA. There are three performance takeaways.

First takeaway: commodity ETFs are leading. The image below shows the 10 ETFs with the highest year-to-date gains. Nine of the top ten are commodity-related ETFs. We are seeing strength in precious metals (gold, silver), industrial metals (copper, copper miners) and integrated energy (XLE). Broady speaking, this tells us that commodities are preferred over stocks. 

TrendInvestorPro covered the leading equity and commodity ETFs in our reports/videos this week. We saw breakouts in Aerospace-Defense and continued leadership in Insurance. Gold has blue skies as it trades near all-time highs, while Copper is looking dicey as it goes parabolic. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

Second takeaway: Equity ETFs from non-cyclical groups show relative strength. These include Aerospace-Defense (ITA), Insurance (KIE), Healthcare (XLV), Telecom (IYZ) and MLPs (AMLP). Non-cyclical groups are more insulated from economic fluctuations and often hold up better during periods of economic uncertainty.

Third takeaway: Equity ETFs from cyclical groups show the most pronounced downtrends. The example below is sorted by percent above 200-day SMA. The furthest below their 200-day SMAs are at the top and showing the most pronounced downtrends. Here we see ETFs related to Housing (ITB, XHB), Retail (XRT) and Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX). This is not the performance profile of a bull market. 

Need an organized and focused ETF ChartList that covers all bases? Our Core ETF ChartList has 72 names organized in a logical top-down manner. It includes 59 equity ETFs, 4 Treasury bond ETFs, 7 commodity ETFs and 2 crypto ETFs. Sign up for a trial at TrendInvestorPro and I will share this ChartList.

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Investing

Joe Cavatoni: Gold Shining, Risk Assets Under Pressure — What’s Next?

Investing 1 Min Read

Gold has seen rapid price gains in 2025 — is its move past US$3,000 per ounce sustainable?

Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council, said although the metal’s ascent has been quick, it’s underpinned by strong fundamentals.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Danielle DiMartino Booth: US Economy at Precipice — Key Data to Watch Now

Investing 1 Min Read

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, shares her US economic outlook, saying layoffs and bankruptcies are putting the Federal Reserve in a ‘tight position.’

She sees the central bank potentially cutting rates four to five times in 2025.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Fury Gold Mines Advances Québec Precious Metals Acquisition

Investing 3 Mins Read

Fury Gold Mines (TSX:FURY,NYSEAMERICAN:FURY) announced that its acquisition of Québec Precious Metals (QPM) (TSXV:QPM,OTCQB:CJCFF) is advancing on schedule, on track to reach completion before April 30.

The deal, announced in February, aims to consolidate a 157,000 hectare portfolio of gold and critical minerals projects in Québec, positioning the combined company for enhanced exploration and growth.

QPM has obtained both a no-objection letter from Corporations Canada and an interim order from the Québec Superior Court. These allow it to proceed with an April 22 meeting where shareholders will vote on the proposed acquisition.

For its part, Fury has secured conditional approvals from the Toronto Stock Exchange and NYSE American.

QPM’s shareholder circular, which is now available on SEDAR+, outlines the details of the merger and includes updated financial disclosures from Fury. Notably, Fury expects to record a non-cash impairment charge as of December 31, 2024, to align the carrying value of its mineral properties with its market capitalization.

Under the terms of the agreement, QPM shareholders will receive 0.0741 Fury shares for each QPM share, valuing QPM at approximately C$0.04 per share — a 33 percent premium based on closing prices as of February 25.

Upon completion of the deal, Fury shareholders will own approximately 95 percent of the combined company, while QPM shareholders will hold the remaining 5 percent.

“This transaction is an exciting opportunity given it doubles Fury’s land package in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay Region of Quebec and unites complementary assets, teams, and investor bases, which should ultimately increase shareholder value at both companies,’ Fury CEO Tim Clark said, describing the transaction as a transformational step.

Normand Champigny, CEO of QPM, echoed this sentiment, commenting, ‘By combining with Fury, QPM’s shareholders will benefit from the synergies and cost savings of leveraging the combined company’s excellent management team for funding and obtaining required permits to continue drilling at Sakami.”

The merger will significantly expand Fury’s footprint in Québec’s resource-rich Eeyou Istchee James Bay region.

QPM’s flagship Sakami project, a 70,900 hectare gold and lithium property, has demonstrated strong exploration potential, with drilling identifying gold mineralization across widths of up to 75 meters and depths of up to 500 meters.

Its Elmer East project contains a 4.2 kilometer gold- and base metals-bearing structure, where grab samples have returned gold values as high as 68.1 grams per metric ton, alongside significant zinc and copper concentrations.

Beyond gold and lithium, QPM brings a strategic rare earths asset into the combined portfolio.

The Kipawa heavy rare earth elements project, in which QPM holds a 68 percent interest, hosts a historically defined 2013 reserve estimate of 19.8 million metric tons. It has road access and is in proximity to infrastructure.

While the transaction is moving forward as planned, it remains subject to various conditions, including approval from at least two-thirds of QPM shareholders, and final court and regulatory approvals.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Trump’s Auto Tariffs Ignite Global Trade Tensions and Market Uncertainty

Investing 6 Mins Read

The global auto industry was thrown into turmoil on Wednesday (March 26) as US President Donald Trump announced sweeping 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

The tariffs, set to take effect in early April, mark a significant escalation in Trump’s ongoing trade war and are expected to raise car prices, disrupt supply chains and provoke retaliatory measures from key US allies.

The White House is framing the measure as a strategy to boost domestic manufacturing and address what Trump has called an unfair reliance on foreign production. However, the tariffs apply not only to foreign automakers, but also to American brands, which rely heavily on imported parts and assemble many of their vehicles outside the US.

Carmakers take share price hits

The announcement sent shockwaves through global stock markets, particularly in the automotive sector.

Shares of major automakers in Japan, South Korea and Europe plummeted, with Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM,TSE:7203) and Mazda Motor (TSE:7261) leading declines in Tokyo. South Korean carmakers Hyundai Motor (KRX:005380) and Kia (KRX:000270) also took heavy losses, while auto parts suppliers in India and Germany saw sharp drops.

US automakers were not spared — shares of General Motors (NYSE:GM) tumbled nearly 7 percent, while Ford Motor (NYSE:F) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) each fell more than 4 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price, however, saw a slight increase, despite a warning from CEO Elon Musk that the tariffs will still have a ‘significant’ impact on his company.

Beyond the stock market reaction, industry analysts predict the tariffs could add thousands of dollars to the cost of vehicles, further straining American consumers already facing high inflation. The tariffs are expected to increase vehicle prices, with estimates suggesting an average rise of US$4,400 per new car.

The Center for Automotive Research previously projected that such tariffs could lead to a reduction of approximately 2 million in US new vehicle sales and result in the loss of nearly 714,700 jobs.

‘The tariffs imposed today will make it more expensive to produce and sell cars in the United States, ultimately leading to higher prices, fewer options for consumers, and fewer manufacturing jobs in the US,’ said Jennifer Safavian, president and CEO of Autos Drive America, in a recent statement.

International backlash and retaliation threats

Key US allies, including Canada, Japan, South Korea and the European Union, swiftly condemned the move from the Trump administration and signaled potential retaliatory actions.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the tariffs as ‘bad for businesses, worse for consumers,’ while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called them a ‘direct attack’ on Canadian workers.

‘We will defend our workers, we will defend our companies, we will defend our country and we will defend it together,’ Carney stated. He has also said Canada’s old relationship with the US is ‘over.’

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo is considering ‘all options’ in response to the new tariffs, and South Korea announced plans to implement an emergency response for its auto industry by early April.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also criticized the move, warning that it could lead to inflation in the US and damage global economic stability. ‘Protectionism doesn’t help any country in the world,’ Lula said at a press conference in Tokyo, vowing to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

Trump, however, has remained defiant.

In an Oval Office statement, he defended the tariffs as a necessary step to curb what he described as foreign nations ‘taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of the things that they’ve been taking over the years.’

He warned that if Canada and the EU retaliate, the US will respond with even ‘larger-scale tariffs.’

In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated, ‘If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large-scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had.’

Auto industry divided on tariffs

While many automakers and trade groups have voiced opposition to the new tariffs, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, an American union with over 400,000 active members, has applauded the move.

‘These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S.,’ UAW President Shawn Fain said in a statement released on Wednesday.

Some foreign automakers have already announced plans to expand their US operations in an attempt to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. For example, Hyundai recently pledged to invest US$21 billion in the US over the next four years, including a new steel production facility in Louisiana.

Mercedes-Benz Group (OTC Pink:MBGAF,ETR:MBG) has indicated it will expand operations in Alabama, though it remains unclear how significantly these moves will offset the broader economic impact.

What comes next?

Trump’s auto tariff decision is the latest in a string of aggressive trade measures since his return to office.

Earlier this year, he announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico over their alleged roles in allowing fentanyl into the US; in addition to that, Trump has imposed new duties on Chinese imports, and has hinted at an upcoming reciprocal tariff policy that would match the import taxes of other countries.

Trade officials around the world are preparing potential countermeasures. The European Union is reportedly considering tariffs on US agricultural exports, while Canada is exploring retaliatory duties on American goods.

The move also raises questions about Trump’s long-term economic strategy.

While his administration argues that tariffs will encourage companies to bring production back to the US, many economists believe the costs will ultimately be passed on to American consumers and businesses.

For now, the global auto industry is bracing for uncertainty, with markets watching closely for further retaliatory measures and potential negotiations to mitigate the immediate impact of the tariffs.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Business

Chinese tea chain Chagee files for U.S. initial public offering

Business 2 Mins Read

Chinese tea chain Chagee filed for a U.S. initial public offering on Tuesday, seeking to trade on the Nasdaq using the ticker “CHA.”

The IPO filing comes as the company prepares to open its first U.S. store in the Westfield Century City mall in Los Angeles this spring.

Since its founding in 2017, the company has grown to more than 6,400 teahouses across China, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, as of Dec. 31, according to a regulatory filing. Roughly 97% of its locations are in China.

Chagee said it generated net income of $344.5 million from revenue of $1.7 billion in 2024.

Founder and CEO Junjie Zhang created the chain to modernize tea drinking after being inspired by the success of international coffee companies, according to a regulatory filing. China is Starbucks’ second-largest market.

Looking ahead, Chagee wants to “serve tea lovers in 100 countries, generate 300,000 employment opportunities worldwide, and deliver 15 billion cups of freshly brewed tea annually,” according to the company’s website.

If Chagee goes public on the Nasdaq, it will join the dwindling number of Chinese companies seeking a U.S. listing. From January 2023 to January 2024, the number of Chinese companies listed on the three largest U.S. exchanges fell 5%, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

As relations between the U.S. and Beijing have grown frostier, political scrutiny has dashed some Chinese companies’ hopes of a U.S. IPO. Shein is now planning a London IPO for later this year after lawmakers pushed back on its plans to go public on a U.S. exchange.

U.S. investors might also be wary to invest in another Chinese beverage chain after the example set by Luckin Coffee.

Luckin was founded in 2017 and grew quickly. By 2019, it had outnumbered the number of Starbucks locations in China and gone public on the Nasdaq.

But in 2020, Luckin disclosed that it had inflated its sales, resulting in its delisting from the Nasdaq. The company filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy. Luckin emerged from bankruptcy by 2022, minus the executives that were responsible for the fraud.

Since then, it has overtaken Starbucks as China’s largest coffee retailer by sales.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Dollar Tree says it’s winning over higher-income shoppers and may offset tariffs with price hikes

Business 3 Mins Read

Dollar Tree said Wednesday that it’s gaining market share with higher-income consumers and could raise prices on some products to offset President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The discount retailer’s CEO, Michael Creedon, said the company is seeing “value-seeking behavior across all income groups.” While Dollar Tree has always relied on lower-income shoppers and gets about 50% of its business from middle-income consumers, sustained inflation has led to “stronger demand from higher-income customers,” Creedon said.

Dollar Tree’s success with higher-income shoppers follows similar gains from Walmart, which has made inroads with the cohort following the prolonged period of high prices.

Trump’s tariffs on certain goods from China, Mexico and Canada — and the potential for broad duties on trading partners around the world — have only added to concerns about stretched household budgets. While Dollar Tree will use tactics like negotiating with suppliers and moving manufacturing to mitigate the effect of the duties, it could also hike the prices of some items, Creedon said.

Dollar Tree has rolled out prices higher than its standard $1.25 products at about 2,900 so-called multi-price stores. Certain products can cost anywhere from $1.50 to $7 at those locations.

The retailer weighed in on higher-income customers and the potential effect of tariffs as it announced its fourth-quarter earnings. Dollar Tree also said it will sell its struggling Family Dollar chain for about $1 billion to a consortium of private-equity investors.

Dollar Tree said its net sales for continuing operations — its namesake brand — totaled $5 billion for the quarter, while same-stores sales climbed 2%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.11 for the period.

It is unclear how the figures compare to Wall Street estimates.

For fiscal 2025, Dollar Tree expects net sales of $18.5 billion to $19.1 billion from continuing operations, with same-store sales growth of 3% to 5%. It anticipates it will post adjusted earnings of $5 to $5.50 per share for the year.

Creedon said the expected hit from the first round of 10% tariffs Trump levied on China in February would have been $15 million to $20 million per month, but the company has mitigated about 90% of that effect.

Additional 10% duties on China imposed this month, along with 25% levies on Mexico and Canada that have only partly taken effect, would hit Dollar Tree by another $20 million per month, Creedon said. The company is working to offset those duties, but did not include them in its financial guidance due to the confusion over which tariffs will take effect and when.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Oil executives bluntly criticize Trump tariffs and ‘drill, baby, drill’ mantra

Business 2 Mins Read

Oil executives are warning that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and “drill, baby, drill” message have created uncertainty in energy markets that is already affecting investment.

The executives, shielded by anonymity, bluntly criticized Trump in their responses to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from March 12 to March 20.

“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets,” one executive said. ”‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.”

Several executives said Trump’s steel tariffs are raising their costs, making it difficult to plan for future projects.

“Uncertainty around everything has sharply risen during the past quarter,” another executive said. “Planning for new development is extremely difficult right now due to the uncertainty around steel-based products.”

They also criticized the suggestion by White House advisers such as Peter Navarro that Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda aims to push oil prices down to $50 a barrel to fight inflation.

“The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures,” an executive said. ”‘Drill, baby, drill’ does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19.”

CNBC has asked the White House for comment.

The Dallas Fed Energy Survey is conducted every quarter with about 200 firms responding. The survey covers operators in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana.

The scathing criticism in the Dallas Fed survey stood in contrast to major oil companies’ public comments at the industry’s big energy conference in Houston earlier this month.

Executives mostly praised Trump’s energy team during the event and welcomed the administration’s focus on increasing leasing and slashing red tape around permitting.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Is the Correction Over? Or Are We Still Looking at a Bear Market?

Stock 3 Mins Read

The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 fell 10.5%, 13.8%, and 19.5%, respectively, from their recent all-time highs down to their March lows. Each index paused long enough and deep enough for a correction, with the Russell 2000 nearly reaching cyclical bear market territory (-20%).

At this point, there’s key price resistance on the S&P 500. Moving through it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re “in the clear.” However, failure to move through and then rolling back over increases the odds of another test of recent low price support. Check out the range I’m watching on the S&P 500:

Key price resistance, in my view, is at 5782 on the S&P 500. That was the gap support from early November and also the price support from mid-January. Now we’re trying to break above that resistance, while at the same time trying to hang onto now-rising 20-day EMA support.

As for support, the April and August lows in 2024 intersect beautifully with the March 2025 low. That’s something to keep an eye on if we begin to head lower again. The price support on the S&P 500 is now just above 5500, so a close beneath that level would be damaging – at least in the very near-term. I say that, because any new closing low would be accompanied by a higher PPO, a positive divergence. Many times, a reversing candle and a positive divergence will mark a significant bottom. So there’ll be plenty to watch over the next few days to few weeks.

I also want to show you how the S&P 500 is performing on a short-term chart vs. the NASDAQ 100, which is the more aggressive index:

It’s just a little thing, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 had been trading mostly in unison over the past week or two, but with this morning’s weakness, note that the NASDAQ 100 has moved back down to Monday’s opening gap higher, while the S&P 500 still remains well above it. Here’s one reason for it:

Since the Fed announcement one week ago, discretionary stocks (XLY) had reversed its downtrend vs. staples stocks (XLP). But check out today’s action! Maybe this is just short-term and we’ll see a reversal later, but it’s hard to be overly encouraged when staples goes up 1.14%, while discretionary drops 0.64%.

It’s a warning sign.

I know there are TONS of mixed signals out there and everyone wants to know whether this recovery is the REAL DEAL or if it was only temporary before the next shoe drops. Well, if you’re interested, I’ll be hosting a FREE event on Saturday.

Correction or Bear Market?

That’s the topic of our Saturday event, which will begin promptly at 10am ET. I will be providing multiple angles/charts/strategies and what each of them are telling us. If you’d like to join me on Saturday and would like more information, REGISTER NOW.

Even if you have a prior commitment on Saturday, we plan to record the event and send out the recording to all who register. So act now to attend and/or receive your copy of the recording.

Happy trading!

Tom

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